I’m coming off another big week in NFL betting, winning 2.96 units in Week 4, including wins in my best bet and Same Game Parlay from this article.
This page highlights my best football parlay bet for Week 5, along with a longshot parlay and Same Game Parlay.
We’ll try to make it four winning weeks in a row with my NFL Week 5 parlays, so let’s dive in.
Best NFL Week 5 Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2023 Betting Record: 47-52 (+4.24 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Friday, Oct. 6, at 11 a.m. ET from the indicated sportsbook.
Week 5 Top Parlay (+261)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.4 Units
- Colts +2.5 (-110) vs Titans
- Rams +4 (-112) vs Eagles
The top parlay features two home underdogs on the point spread.
We’ll start with the Colts (2-2) at +2.5 over the division-rival Titans (2-2).
Indianapolis is coming off a 29-23 overtime loss to the Rams in which rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson was able to erase a 23-0 deficit, but his team ultimately fell short in the extra frame.
You have to love what new head coach Shane Steichen is doing with this Colts offense, playing at a fast pace and allowing his first-year signal-caller to run wild.
It looks like Jonathan Taylor will be return to action for this game. Even if that’s not the case, I still like the Colts to knock off a vanilla Titans team.
Tennessee just blew out the Bengals in a 27-3 victory, but Joe Burrow is clearly not himself with the calf injury, so this win isn’t as impressive as it sounds.
Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is averaging only 197 passing yards per game, with two touchdowns and four interceptions.
Take the Colts to get a big win at home against this inferior offense.
I’ll finish it off with the Rams (2-2) to keep it close by covering +4 against the Eagles (4-0).
Los Angeles was able to hold off the Colts in that 29-23 win last week, highlighted by yet another impressive performance by rookie wideout Puka Nacua (nine catches for 163 yards and a touchdown).
Quarterback Matthew Stafford continues to play at a high level, ranking sixth in PFF Grade for the year. His strong performance has helped the Rams emerge as one of the biggest surprises of the year so far.
While the Eagles are undefeated, they’ve shown some cracks in their armor, coming close to losing at home to the Commanders before prevailing in overtime.
There’s some vulnerability in pass defense here, where the Eagles rank 20th in Dropback EPA, per RBSDM.com.
Look for Stafford to find success through the air in this one, especially with Cooper Kupp looking ready to return.
Target these two point spreads in our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Week 5 Parlay
Week 5 Longshot Parlay (+289)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.35 Units
- Texans ML (+102) at Falcons
- Saints ML (-108) at Patriots
The longshot parlay features two road underdogs in great spots.
The Texans (2-2) take on a Falcons team (2-2) that just got blown out by the Jaguars in London.
This is a tale of two quarterbacks headed in opposite directions. Texans rookie C.J. Stroud has been phenomenal, throwing for at least 280 yards with two touchdowns in each of his last three games.
On the other side, Desmond Ridder has been abysmal, coming in dead last in PFF grades for quarterbacks. The second-year quarterback is averaging only 6.3 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and three interceptions.
Simply put, Atlanta would be wise to bench Ridder in favor of former Commanders quarterback Taylor Heinicke.
But there are no current plans for that according to head coach Arthur Smith, so take the Texans to win outright due to their advantage under center.
- See the full list of NFL Week 5 odds.
I’ll conclude the longshot parlay with the Saints (2-2) to beat the Patriots (1-3).
While New Orleans is coming off a resounding defeat at the hands of the rival Buccaneers, we can attribute that to Derek Carr playing through a shoulder injury.
Despite Carr’s struggles, he’s still a better quarterback than Mac Jones, who was benched in the 38-3 loss to the Cowboys.
New Orleans also has a much better arsenal of weapons on offense, including Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara, who just made 13 catches in his return to action.
To make matters worse for New England, Pro Bowl pass rusher Matthew Judon (torn biceps) and standout rookie corner Christian Gonzalez (torn labrum) suffered serious injuries last week, putting their seasons in jeopardy.
The absences of those key players could open up opportunities for Olave and Thomas to make plays downfield.
Target these two underdogs in our longshot parlay.
NFL Week 5 Same Game Parlay
Jets vs Broncos Same Game Parlay (+204)
FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units
- Jets ML (+114)
- Breece Hall: Over 60.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
The Jets got a moral victory by keeping it close vs the defending Super Bowl champions in a 23-20 loss to the Chiefs last week.
What was so encouraging about this defeat was how well Zach Wilson played. The third-year signal-caller completed 28-of-39 passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns.
It’s not an exaggeration to say that this was the best performance of Wilson’s career.
Now the former BYU star gets to go up against a Broncos defense that just got shredded by Justin Fields for 335 yards and four touchdowns.
Denver has the worst defense in the NFL right now, putting Wilson in a good spot to build off last week.
The Jets’ strength is their defense, which gives them an edge in this matchup. As an added bonus, it’s the Nathaniel Hackett revenge game.
The former Broncos’ head coach will look to stick it to his former team, especially after Sean Payton publicly chastised him for his tenure in Denver.
Look for the Jets to get the win here since they’re the better team.
I’ll finish it off with a correlated prop in Breece Hall to go Over 60.5 rushing yards.
Not only is the Broncos defense allowing 5.84 yards per carry (31st), but Hall is one of the most explosive runners in the NFL. The second-year back has 210 rushing yards on only 32 carries (6.6 YPC).
What’s even better is that head coach Robert Saleh publicly stated that they will no longer be limiting Hall’s workload.
In other words, there’s a great chance that Hall flies Over this number.
