We finally got back on track in Week 9, winning two units to snap a two-week cold streak. I’m now back in the green for the season and will look to have a strong second half.
Read on for my best bet, longshot, and same-game parlay for Week 10. Check out my X account, @FAmmiranteTFJ, to see my full betting card.
We’ll get back on track with my NFL Week 10 parlays.
Best NFL Week 10 Parlay
Frank Ammirante 2023 Betting Record: 112-140 (+2 units)
All NFL gameday odds are current as of Friday, Nov. 10, at 11 a.m. ET from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Week 10 Top Parlay (+258)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.4 Units
- Packers/Steelers: Under 39 Points (-112)
- Jets/Raiders: Under 37 Points (-112)
The top parlay starts off with the Under in the Green Bay Packers vs Pittsburgh Steelers game.
These two teams have consistently played in low-scoring games this season. The Under is 5-3 in Packers games and 7-1 for the Steelers.
Jordan Love (65.4 PFF Passing Grade, 27th) vs Kenny Pickett (64.9 PFF Passing Grade, 28th) is a matchup of two of the worst quarterbacks in the league.
While we’ve got a low bar here at 39 points, this feels like a 20-17 type of game given the erratic quarterback play.
I’ll finish it off with another Under, this time in the New York Jets vs Las Vegas Raiders.
We’re targeting Raiders rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell (46.8 PFF Passing Grade, 50th) against an elite Jets pass defense.
New York has limited Justin Herbert (136 yards), Jalen Hurts (three interceptions), and Patrick Mahomes (6.77 yards per attempt) this season.
It’s going to be tough for O’Connell to do much through the air against this unit.
On top of that, Zach Wilson hasn’t been good at all for New York, as the team has combined for only 19 points in their last two games.
Target these two picks in our NFL bet of the day.
Longshot NFL Week 10 Parlay
Week 10 Longshot Parlay (+359)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.3 Units
- Vikings ML (+124) vs Saints
- Cardinals ML (+105) vs Falcons
The longshot parlay starts off with the Minnesota Vikings (5-4) to knock off the New Orleans Saints (5-4).
Joshua Dobbs did a terrific job leading a fourth-quarter comeback in his first game with Minnesota last week.
Dobbs’ elusive ability coupled with a strong supporting cast could keep the Vikings afloat on offense in Kirk Cousins‘ absence.
On top of that, the Vikings have an underrated defense, which has improved a lot under coordinator Brian Flores.
Minnesota ranks 16th in pass EPA and ninth in rush EPA this year after being one of the worst units in football last season.
I’m riding with the Vikings as home underdogs against the Saints, who have gotten underwhelming quarterback play from Derek Carr all year.
- See the full list of NFL Week 10 odds.
I’ll conclude this parlay with the Arizona Cardinals (1-8) to beat the Atlanta Falcons (4-5).
Kyler Murray is back for Arizona, which should provide a major boost to a stagnant offense.
This is also a fade of Falcons head coach Arthur Smith, who has consistently demonstrated an unwillingness to feature his best players in the offense, most notably Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts.
Look for the Cardinals to get their second win of the year in Murray’s return.
NFL Week 10 Same-Game Parlay
Titans vs Buccaneers Same-Game Parlay (+525)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.2 Units
- Under 39 Points (-108)
- Will Levis: Over 219.5 Passing Yards (-115)
- DeAndre Hopkins: Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
I’m targeting the Titans vs Bucs for the Week 10 Same-Game Parlay.
Tampa Bay has a pass-funnel defense, allowing 296 passing yards per game. They’ve also been torched by wide receivers this year.
Just look at what they’ve allowed to quarterbacks and their wideouts:
- Kirk Cousins (344 yards) / Justin Jefferson (150 yards)
- Justin Fields (211 yards) / DJ Moore (104 yards)
- Jalen Hurts (277 yards) / A.J. Brown (131 yards)
- Jared Goff (353 yards) / Amon-Ra St. Brown (124 yards)
- Josh Allen (324 yards) / Khalil Shakir (92 yards)
- C.J. Stroud (370 yards) / three wide receivers with 100-plus yards
We should see Will Levis find DeAndre Hopkins early and often in this one.
If we add the Over 39 points in this parlay, we would get (+298) odds. But if we make a contradictory play and go with Under 39, we’d get a much better (+525) price.
This is because taking the Under has negative correlation with our two props. However, it’s not like we’ve got a high bar on Levis (219.5 yards) or Hopkins (60.5 yards).
In other words, it’s entirely possible that we see a low-scoring game, but Levis and Hopkins still make an impact through the air.
Take a look at the Bucs’ home games this season:
- 27-17 win vs Bears (44 points)
- 25-11 loss vs Eagles (36 points)
- 20-6 loss vs Lions (26 points)
- 16-13 loss vs Falcons (29 points)
As you can see, low-scoring games have been quite common in Tampa. We’ll bet on that happening once again in this spot.
