Week 4 has several intriguing matchups on tap, one of which is an NFC North showdown between the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Both teams have struggled to get on track with new quarterbacks this year, as the Lions are 0-3 and the Bears are 1-2.
Both teams are coming off rough Week 3 losses as well. Detroit fell to the Baltimore Ravens on Justin Tucker‘s historic game-winning field goal, while Justin Fields was sacked nine times by the Cleveland Browns in his first career start.
Will the Lions earn their first win of 2021 this week? Or will the Bears step up at home and even their record at 2-2? Let’s break down this Week 4 matchup in our NFL pick of the day series.
Please note that all Lions vs Bears odds and lines are current as of Friday, October 1.
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Lions vs Bears Week 4 Prediction
Per our NFL gameday odds, the Bears are favored by about a field goal at most sportsbooks, which is typical for the home team. The game is also expected to be low-scoring, with the point total currently in the low 40s at most sites.
The Lions have played better than their 0-3 record would indicate, as they’ve faced a brutal schedule thus far. They only lost by one possession to the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, and played a great first half against the Green Bay Packers on Monday Night Football. The offense has been solid with Jared Goff despite a dearth of wide receivers, ranking 19th in both offensive points per game (22.3) and offensive yards per play (5.3).
Meanwhile, the Bears are a bit of a mess right now. Fields’ first start was a dud, and Matt Nagy has refused to commit to a quarterback for Week 4. We could see Fields, Andy Dalton, or even Nick Foles under center on Sunday.
Regardless of who starts for Chicago, it likely won’t be pretty. The Bears are currently second-to-last in the NFL in offensive points per game (13.3) and dead last in offensive yards per play. They’ve struggled to move the chains thus far, but could have better luck against a Lions defense that’s allowed the second-most points in the NFL at 31.7 per game.
All things considered, this figures to be a close game that may not feature a ton of offense. Chicago is the more talented team on paper, but given their instability at quarterback I’m giving the edge to Detroit here.
Prediction: Lions 27, Bears 24
Lions vs Bears Best Bets
Best Bet: Lions +3 (-120) at Caesars
I like the Lions to cover here, especially after playing several close games against some of the NFL’s better teams. The Bears are the easiest team they’ve played thus far, which should result in another close game if not an outright win for Detroit.
With Chicago reeling on both offense and defense, Goff and co. are certainly capable of winning this one. Based on my game prediction above, picking the Lions to cover the spread is my NFL bet of the day.
Best Bet: Total Points Over 41 (-110) at DraftKings
The biggest question mark heading into this game is who will serve as the Bears’ signal-caller. Fields’ first start was disastrous, but to be fair the Browns have a terrific defense. He should have a much easier time against the Lions if he gets another crack in Week 4, as their defense rates among the worst in the NFL.
Look for Chicago’s offense to rebound here and play with a higher sense of urgency, especially with Nagy on the hot seat. With Detroit still searching for its first win, I expect both teams to come out aggressive and put points on the board.
It’s also worth noting that Bears games have averaged 45.2 total points this year, while Lions games have averaged 49. That makes the Over even more appealing.
Lions vs Bears Same Game Parlay Picks
- Lions +6.5 Alternate Spread
- Over 39.5 Alternate Total Points
One of my favorite Same Game Parlays is for the Lions to cover +6.5 and for at least 40 points to be scored. This is one of the safer parlays that I’ve found for this game and have money on. If you really agree with me on the Lions here, take them on the moneyline or even winning by a few points for a larger payout.
Lions vs Bears Player Props
- TJ Hockenson Over 4.5 Receptions (-140) at DraftKings
- Make no mistake, Hockenson is the primary pass-catcher in this offense and has seen 22 targets in the first three games this year. He saw 20 of them in the first two weeks and totally believe that last week him catching just 2/2 for 10 yards was an outlier for the up-and-coming stud tight end. He’ll get plenty of looks this week and should easily catch 6-8 in this one and see 8-10 targets.
- Jamaal Williams Over 2.5 Receptions (+100) at DraftKings
- Williams has been heavily involved in this offense this year and is currently the RB12 in PPR. This is largely thanks to his passing game involvement as he’s caught 13/14 targets this year for 93 receiving yards. He’s caught 8, 3, and 2 passes in each game this year, and I’m projecting him to have 4-5 catches in this one.
- David Montgomery Anytime TD Scorer (+110) at DraftKings
- After a huge season in 2020, Montgomery has gotten off to a slow start, finding the end zone just once this year in Week 1. With Fields starting and this Bears needing desperately to get things going in the right direction, I’m betting on Montgomery finding the end zone as one of the key factors that get this Bears offense going in the right direction.