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Oregon State vs Oregon Predictions

Last Updated: Nov 20, 2023

With 126 total meetings, the Oregon Ducks and Oregon State Beavers have met more than almost any pair of college football teams. This is the fifth-most played rivalry game in all of the FBS.

This year, with Oregon ranked No. 6 and Oregon State at No. 15, it’s as big as it’s ever been, and will have center stage as a Friday night showdown. Oregon leads the all-time series 67-49-10, and it’ll be home favorites in this edition, but the Beavers have played some great football this season and will put up a great fight.

Who will win this final matchup before the two schools are split up by conference realignment? Find out with our free Oregon State Beavers vs Oregon Ducks college football picks and predictions for Friday, Nov. 24, at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Oregon State vs Oregon Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for Beavers vs. Ducks

NCAAF lines used for Oregon State at Oregon were current as of Sunday, Nov. 19 at 9:30 p.m. EST on DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Oregon (-675) • Oregon State (+490)
  • Spread: Oregon -14 (-110) • Oregon State +14 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 62 (-110) • Under 62 (-110)

Oregon is a two-touchdown favorite, with no hook being offered in either direction. The total is set relatively high, not a shocker most times in a classic West Coast rivalry, but given the caliber of defenses in this year’s edition, it’s an eye-catching line.

Oregon State vs Oregon Prediction

SCORE PICK: Oregon 34, Oregon State 24

Oregon is one of the best teams in the country, as evidenced by some of the top metrics of any team. It’s second in EPA per play and available yards percentage, while first overall in net yards per play and success rate.

The only blemish on its record is a close loss on the road at a still-undefeated Washington squad, so it rightfully believes that it’s still in the hunt for the College Football Playoff, and it could be just two wins away from its first berth since the inaugural edition.

But first, the Ducks have to get through their in-state rivals, Oregon State, another excellent squad, as the Beavers currently rank 11th in the country in EPA per play themselves. They’re coming off of a close loss to that same Washington squad - their third defeat of the year by three points or fewer.

Both of these teams have been buoyed by resurgent performances from transfer quarterbacks. For Oregon, it’s Heisman hopeful Bo Nix, while for the Beavers, it’s the former Clemson Tiger DJ Uiagalelei, who has thrived behind their solid offensive line.

That being said, a solid Ducks pass rush will be able to disrupt him enough to keep the home team ahead in this one, while their second-ranked offense, as per EPA, will just about get the job done against a solid Beavers defense.

Oregon State vs Oregon Best Bets

Oregon State +14 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Let’s just return to the fact that the Beavers haven’t lost by more than three all season, and they’ve played some good teams, including the Washington team that only beat Oregon itself by a field goal. This team is quietly well rounded, with a top-10 offense as per EPA and a top-50 defense, as well, led by the star safety duo of Kitan Oladapo and Akili Arnold.

Oregon does have an advantage on the offensive side of the ball. Its phenomenal ground game headlined by Bucky Irving can take advantage of a run defense that is the Beavers’ definitive Achilles heel.

That being said, running the football shortens the game and is rarely the recipe for a blowout, and Uiagalelei’s offense should be able to more or less keep pace. This game should stay away from that two-touchdown margin.

Under 62 (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

As we’ve discussed, running the football compresses the game as it keeps the clock going, and both sides should be doing plenty of that. Oregon State is the 41st-most run-heavy team in the country, keeping the ball on the ground in 54.68% of its offensive snaps, while Oregon will be sure to leverage that major advantage as outlined above.

In terms of seconds per snap, Oregon’s offense is a far cry from the point-per-second units of the early 2010s. It is 87th-quickest in the country at 27 seconds, while Oregon State moves a second and a half slower and ranks 111th by the metric.

Most of the marquee games these teams have played have been at or below this number, and in most instances, the other side did not have as competitive of a defense. Oregon’s 36-27 win over a USC team with a great offense and awful defense and the 36-33 loss against Washington come to mind, as does Oregon State’s 22-20 defeat to those same Huskies.

Oregon State vs Oregon Same Game Parlay

Oregon State vs Oregon SGP (+110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 Units

  • Under 62 (-110)
  • Oregon (-675)

We don’t have a ton of options eligible for a same game parlay nearly a week before the game, so we’ll keep it simple and conservative. Let’s grab Oregon on the moneyline. It’s heavy favorites for a reason, and it’s hard to imagine a team of this caliber losing at home to end the season.

For the other leg, we’ll stick with the Under in a game that should be intense and decided in the trenches.

Author

William Schwartz

As a former athlete and lifetime fan, sports have always been a huge part of my life. I've written about them for almost as long as I've been watching and playing them, from a blog I wrote with a friend in middle school, to journalism classes at the University of Michigan, to today. I hope to bring you entertaining coverage, strong analysis, and profitable betting picks on any and all sports, whether it's MLB baseball, college football, European soccer, or anything in between.

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