Oklahoma vs Texas Predictions | CFB Best Bets

Last Updated: Oct 5, 2023

College football fans will have a stacked slate of games to enjoy this weekend, including the 2023 iteration of No. 3 Texas Longhorns vs No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners. The two undefeated squads face off this Saturday afternoon for one of college football’s oldest rivalries, the Red River Showdown.

Texas has won 63 of the 118 matchups between these schools, including last year’s 49-0 dismantling of Brent Venables squad. Despite the parody in records this year, Texas is still a 6.5-point favorite at the halfway mark of the week. The Steve Sarkisian-led team has been nothing short of dominant this season, winning all five games by an average of 23.2 points.

Does Oklahoma have enough to pull off the upset? Let’s take a look at Oklahoma vs Texas best bets and predictions.

Oklahoma vs Texas Odds

Track our latest CFB odds for Sooners vs Longhorns:

NCAAF lines used for Oklahoma @ Texas were current as of Oct. 4 at 12 PM EST on BetMGM Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline: Texas (-250) • Oklahoma (+200)
  • Spread: Texas -6.5 (-110) • Oklahoma +6.5 (-110)
  • Total Points: Over 60.5 (-110) • Under 60.5 (-110)

Texas opened the week at around the 5.5-point mark. However, it is slowly approaching the 7-point mark with kick-off under 72 hours away.

Oklahoma vs Texas Prediction

SCORE PICK: Texas 32, Oklahoma 26

Saturday afternoon’s contest between Texas and Oklahoma is shaping up to be an instant classic. Both squads have had superb starts to the season, with several big-name players on both sides of the ball. Right off the bat, the 60.5-point total seems a bit high for two of the top defenses in the country, and I predict the game finishes just under that number.

Oklahoma will give Texas a run for its money but, in the end, will come up just short. The Longhorns’ offense has been unstoppable up to this point, with breakout running back Jonathon Brooks quite literally running through the Big 12. Sophomore quarterback Quinn Ewers, a frontrunner in the latest Heisman Trophy odds, has put together a strong 2023 campaign thus far, throwing 10 touchdowns and just one interception after five games.

Ewers has a plethora of talent on the outside that could shine with Sooners’ defensive back, Gentry Williams, listed as questionable after leaving last week’s game early. Oklahoma is already without starting DB Justin Harrington, who suffered a torn ACL in Week 2.

It is doubtful that we will see a repeat of last year’s 49-0 shutout with how good Oklahoma has looked this season. Senior quarterback Dillon Gabriel has nearly 1,600 yards after five weeks with 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions. While the Sooners have not had the same success as the Texas on the ground, Gabriel’s ability to keep his team in the game through the air will be key.

Oklahoma’s wide receiver duo of Jalil Farooq and Andrel Anthony are two names to watch this week, with star corner Ryan Watts still questionable for the Longhorns.

Oklahoma vs Texas Best Bets

Oklahoma +6.5 (-110)

BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

The Sooners have had a bounce-back season after a nightmare start to the Venables era. With how good Gabriel has been playing, it’s hard to see Oklahoma losing by a touchdown in this one.

Oklahoma realistically has a chance to upset its rivals for the first time since 2021. However, that won’t be easy, given Texas’ pure dominance early on this season. The Longhorns proved to the country that they are a legitimate force when they defeated Alabama by 10 points in Week 2. Three weeks later, one can argue that Sarkisian’s squad is the team to beat this season and it’s reflected in the Longhorns’ CFB National Championship odds.

Under 60.5 (-110)

BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit

Both squads are dominant offensively, but that’s not to say their defenses haven’t lived up to that same expectation. While this game may easily turn into a shootout, it’s hard to imagine both squads scoring at ease with how good they’ve been on the defensive end.

The Sooners have had a complete 180 on the defensive side of the ball from last season and should be able to keep a talented Texas offense in check for much of the game. For the Longhorns, Byron Murphy II and the defensive line will likely disrupt a high-powered Oklahoma offense with how good they’ve been at pressuring the quarterback this season.

Oklahoma vs Texas Same Game Parlay

Oklahoma vs Texas SGP (+575)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units

  • Under 60.5 (-110)
  • Oklahoma Under 26.5 (-105)
  • Texas (-250)

Combining the Texas moneyline with the under on both point totals and Oklahoma points provides some decently juiced odds for Saturday’s contest.

This same game parlay is heavily banking on the Longhorns’ defense continuing to dominate as it has all season. If Texas can keep Oklahoma’s offense in check, as many predict they will, one can reasonably expect a victory and this SGP to cash in the process.

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