Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season is upon us which means another week of NFL byes. This week, marquee teams such as the Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams, and Minnesota Vikings are all off.
All of those teams are either in first place or tied for first in their respective divisions, which means division foes are in a prime spot to try to gain a game in the standings.
Week 6 featured a slate in which hefty underdogs bit the sportsbooks while cashing significant NFL moneylines for bettors. The Giants, Jets, Falcons, and Steelers all won games they probably shouldn’t have, at least on paper.
When it comes to my Week 6 best bets, despite going 2-3, I am only down half of a unit, cashing on two out of three of my 1.5 unit plays including the Vikings -3 and Under 40.5 in the Rams-Panthers game.
Lions vs Cowboys Best Bet
Over 48.5 (-105) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
When it comes to the NFL Over/Under trend for the Cowboys, the Under has been the play, especially at home. The Under is 5-0 in Dallas’ past five games at home. However, with Dak Prescott expected to return to face one of the NFL’s most horrendous defenses, I am leaning toward the Over in Week 7.
You can drop points on the Lions. Go ask Bailey Zappe and the Patriots back in Week 5 who managed to score 29 points. And although that game went Under, the Lions were shut out.
I don’t expect the Cowboys’ defense to shut out the Lions. In fact, even with that shutout, the Lions are still averaging 28 points per game and could be getting D’Andre Swift back from his shoulder injury.
If the Lions can find a way to 21 points, that means Prescott will only have to score 28 in a statement game for the Cowboys’ offense.
The Over is 6-0 in the Lions’ past six games versus NFC opponents and 8-1 in their past nine against the Cowboys.
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Falcons vs Bengals Best Bet
Falcons +6.5 (-115) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
When it comes to NFL betting, this Falcons vs Bengals matchup features two teams that know how to cover the point spread. While the Falcons are 6-0 ATS this season, the Bengals are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 games, covering in each of their past four.
While the Bengals have righted the ship following an 0-2 start, winning three of their past four games, their past two matchups have been decided by fewer than four points, including a game they should have won by more last week against the Saints.
Meanwhile, the Falcons have played in six games this season, all of which were decided by fewer than six points. When Atlanta loses, they don’t get blown out.
The Falcons field the eighth-best scoring offense in the NFL, which means they can keep up with Joe Burrow in a shootout.
Packers vs Commanders Best Bet
Packers -5.5 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I am going to the Green Bay well one more time. However, let’s face the facts. The Packers have failed to cover in three straight games; all of which were games that they were supposed to win easily on paper.
Instead, they barely got by the Patriots while losing two in a row to the Giants and Jets.
Cue the get-right game. Although they are playing on the road, the Packers will get one of the most dysfunctional teams in the form of the Commanders, who will now start Taylor Heinicke thanks to Carson Wentz‘s thumb injury suffered against the Bears.
Chiefs vs 49ers Best Bet
Chiefs -3 (-110) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1.5 Units
Although the Chiefs have had issues covering NFL point spreads of late - they are 1-4 ATS in their past five games, failing to cover in two straight - they should get back on track in Week 7.
Despite playing on the road in a tough San Francisco environment, the Chiefs are one of those teams that don’t drop consecutive games often.
Furthermore, when it comes to the 49ers, they are 3-3 straight up, covering the spread in all three wins while failing to cover in all three losses. If the Chiefs win, they cover.
Between these two clubs, the Chiefs are also healthier. Key pieces to the 49ers’ defense are either on injured reserve or day-to-day. Pound-for-pound, Kansas City is superior at most positions, especially at quarterback.
When it comes to trends, the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their past six meetings with the 49ers while the favorite is 4-1 in the past five meetings between these two clubs.
Steelers vs Dolphins Best Bet
Dolphins -7 (-108) at FanDuel Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Dolphins are 0-3 outright while failing to cover the spread in their past three games with Tua Tagovailoa injured. However, Tagovailoa is expected to return, which means the Dolphins will be back to their winning ways.
Take note that the Dolphins are 4-0 straight up and against the spread with Tagovailoa under center this season. And while the Steelers defeated the Buccaneers last week, they were at home in one of the oddest outcomes to date.
We don’t know who will start at quarterback for the Steelers. Kenny Pickett will be the guy if he clears the NFL’s concussion protocol, but that remains to be seen. Whether it is the rookie or Mitchell Trubisky, they will have their hands full in Miami.
If Tagovailoa gets his explosive offense back on track and the Steelers’ inconsistent quarterback room continues to turn the football over, this will be an easy cover for Miami.
Pittsburgh is 0-3-1 ATS in their past four games against AFC foes. They are also 1-3-1 ATS in their past five games overall.
Furthermore, the Dolphins are 7-2 ATS in their past nine home games while the Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their past five games against Miami.
The trends speak.
