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NFL Week 7 Predictions & Best Bets

Last Updated: Oct 17, 2023

It’s bye week hell for best bets as six teams get the week off in the NFL.

Limited games means tougher decisions to make. As nice as it is to have Sunday morning games overseas, a break from them is better for deciphering which wagers to make without massive travel and time changes for teams.

Week 7 is headlined by five division matchups, as well as a marquee matchup in Philly.

Week 6 was good, as the best bets went 4-1 for a +2.65-unit card. Lines used for this article are correct as of Tuesday, Oct 17, at 10:40 a.m. ET.

NFL Week 7 Best Bet

Browns -1.5 (-115) vs Colts

BetMGM Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

This number is (-2, -110) at Caesars, DraftKings, BetRivers, and PointsBet, as well as (-2.5, -104) at FanDuel. For this game, (-2) is firmly in play, and (-2.5) is the last number I’d take this at.

Cleveland showed Week 6 that an elite defense can beat the best overall team. The Colts are not in the same stratosphere as the 49ers, and Browns QB P.J. Walker gets a better matchup against the Indy secondary.

Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski will smother Gardner Minshew with pressure one week after he struggled with said pressure (three interceptions).

Forcing Minshew to throw by committing to loading the box against Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss should be a no-brainer strategy.


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NFL Week 7 ATS Best Bets

49ers -7 (+100) vs Vikings

Caesars Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

When it comes to NFL betting, sometimes you take the number without the hook to get the odds before they change. I expected (-7) to eventually get bet to at least (-110).

The Vikings looked awful despite winning against Chicago and have little defensively to give the 49ers fits the way the Browns did.

The concern for some would be injuries to top 49ers. Christian McCaffrey (ribs/oblique), Deebo Samuel (shoulder), and Trent Williams (ankle) all left their Week 6 loss.

McCaffrey’s injury is the only one of the three that Kyle Shanahan did not have clarity on, which is great for San Fran.

An extra day before their next game eases my concern with laying a touchdown and extra point in a road game.

NFL Week 7 Over/Under Best Bets

Chargers vs Chiefs Under 49 Points (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Chiefs have had a lack of receiving depth for a few seasons, but the way that it is playing out this season is concerning, especially with Justin Watson (elbow) expected to miss at least Week 7. That could mean a larger push on the ground, which means a running clock.
Coming out of their bye, the Chargers looked awful and depended on rapport between Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen, and some acrobatic catches from Josh Palmer. The run game was non-existent and now faces the 12th-best in yards per game allowed on a short week.

Raiders vs Bears Under 37.5 Points (-108)

FanDuel Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

Do not watch this game if you do not have to. Prepare for Halloween, touch grass, take the kids somewhere. Anything but this game.

Jimmy Garoppolo (back) is not a lock for this game, and the Bears will start Tyson Bagent or Nathan Peterman in place of Justin Fields (dislocated thumb). It’s a bad situation.

The Bears defense is also good enough to stymie the best the Raiders have with Brian Hoyer or Aidan O’Connell under center, allowing only a 42.5% 3rd down conversion rate at home and the third-fewest yards per point.

Bills vs Patriots Under 41.5 Points (-110)

DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit

The Bills run game is inefficient and has to face one of the best run defenses in the NFL. The Patriots offense is broken, period.

Mac Jones has to face the top defense based on sack percentage without a trustworthy pass catcher. If the Patriots have any chance of scoring, it’ll have to be with Rhamondre Stevenson, who is averaging three yards per attempt, a dip of two yards per carry from last season’s breakout.

Buffalo is 31st in yards per carry, but knowing Stevenson is their best offensive player means a concentrated effort to stop him.

Josh Allen has to connect with someone besides Stefon Diggs for this Over to hit. Their connection isn’t bad, it is all they have for the passing game.

If Allen finds that second connection, this bet could fail, especially with New England failing to get home to opposing QBs (5.85% sack rate).

Author

Jeff Hicks

Jeff is the Digital Content Coordinator at The Game Day. He has been covering sports in some fashion for a decade. He has been published on Yahoo Fantasy, 4for4, FantasyLabs, The Action Network, Bleacher Report, Daily Herald (IL), and numerous others. His first published piece was a poem in 8th grade, so naturally he progressed to sports writing.

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