Buffalo Bills (11-3) at New England Patriots (6-8)
The Buffalo Bills visit the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Monday night at 8:15 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Bills Patriots Bet Tips. Odds and lines from Bills-Patriots Picks are from PointsBet, current as of Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Bills Patriots Bet Tips
Bills-Patriots Picks: Odds & Betting Lines
- Against The Spread: Bills -7 (-105)/Patriots +7 (-115)
- Moneyline: Bills (-320)/Patriots (+250)
- Total: 45 — Over 45 (-115)/Under 45 (-105)
- Implied Team Totals: Bills 26, Patriots 19
While the Patriots are out of playoff contention, the Bills are set atop the AFC East, and the No. 2 seed in the AFC thanks to Pittsburgh’s three-game losing streak. While the Patriots had a shot at the Wild Card, they lost three of their past five games, including each of their past two, cementing their postseason fate, or lack thereof.
The Bills on the other hand are one of the hottest teams in football. They have won seven of their past eight games and currently riding a four-game winning streak. Read on for my Bills-Patriots picks.
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Bills-Patriots Key Injuries
Bills
Bills WR Stefon Diggs suffered an ankle injury late in Week 15’s blowout win over the Broncos. However, while the injury initially appeared serious, Buffalo HC Sean McDermott is suggesting to the press that he is not too worried about the ankle. Diggs may be in the clear.
The good thing for the Bills is that they play on Monday night, which gives Diggs more time to heal. But if the Bills want to take precautionary measures to not only prevent a setback but to also make sure that the speedy wideout is good to go for the postseason, the team could elect to sit him out against New England.
Meanwhile, the Bills could also get some help at wide receiver if Diggs indeed sits. The Bills designated WR John Brown to return from injured reserve stemming from an ankle injury of his own that has sidelined him since Week 12. We could see a big role for Brown on Monday night if he is active and Diggs is not.
Patriots
While the Bills are dealing with injuries to two of their starting wideouts, the Patriots will not have the opportunity to fully exploit that handicap. In last week’s loss to Miami, stud CB Stephon Gilmore suffered a partially torn quad that will require season-ending surgery to repair.
Look for Jason McCourty to start opposite J.C. Jackson in New England’s final two games of a lost season for the Patriots.
Bills Patriots Players to Watch
With the Bills hurting at wide receiver, look for Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis to assume larger roles facing a Patriots defense allowing the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (212.4) this season. And although the new England secondary has been fairly stingy, the season-ending loss to Stephon Gilmore leaves a gaping hole at cornerback.
Since Week 10, Beasley has been on a sound run going for 100+ yards in three of the five games, scoring twice in that period in the first two of three games going north of 100. Beasley has drawn 10+ targets four times in that five-game period, hauling in 8+ receptions three times.
For Davis, the rookie wideout has been playing well despite a dud game last week. Going into last week’s win over Denver, Davis had caught a touchdown in four of the five previous games. Now, he has scored in four of his past six.
The best thing the Patriots do on offense is run the football. Consequentially, that is the worst thing the Bills do on defense, giving New England an edge as well as a shot to control the tempo of the game and keep Josh Allen on the sideline.
While we could see Damien Harris return this week — he missed last week’s loss to the Dolphins with an ankle injury — the Patriots could still effectively run the ball with Sony Michel and Cam Newton.
Last week with Harris sidelined, Michel rushed for 74 yards on 10 carries while hauling in an eight-yard catch on his lone target. In three career games against the Bills, Michel has gone over the century mark in total yards in two of them but has only logged one touchdown in those three appearances.
The Bills are allowing the 13th most rushing yards per game (121.4) in 2020.
Bills Patriots Weather Report
The weather at Gillette Stadium calls for scattered showers at the time of kickoff with a 30% chance of precipitation.
The temperature is set at 43 degrees Fahrenheit with 7 mph winds blowing NorthWest.
Bills-Patriots Picks & Best Bet
BEST BET: Under 45 (-105)
This game features two teams that know each other very well. While the Patriots have dominated this rivery in the Tom Brady era, the tables are turning now that Josh Allen is coming into his own as an above-average NFL starter.
While the Patriots are not playing well on offense this season, their defense has performed well. The Patriots are surrendering the 11th fewest total yards per game (345.4), the sixth-fewest passing yards per game (212.4), and the seventh-fewest points per game (21.5).
While you can run against them — the Patriots are allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (133.0) — that is Buffalo’s weakness on offense. The Bills are averaging the 12th fewest rushing yards per game (108.2). And if it was not for Allen’s rushing ability, they would be a bottom-feeder team in that category.
The Patriots want to run the football. Not only to control the pace and to keep opposing offenses on the sideline, but they want to run because they have to run. Their passing attack is nonexistent.
While the Bills can drop points on anyone, the last time they were held to 24 points or fewer was back in Week 8 against the Patriots.
The Under is 2-5 in the Bills’ past seven games but 2-2 in their past four, with their total going Over in last week’s pummeling of the Broncos.
The Under is 8-2 in the Patriots’ past 10 games, hitting in six consecutive games. Five of those games in which the total went Under in the Patriots’ past 10 had marks of 45 points, which is this week’s number.
The Under is 6-4 in the past 10 meetings between the Bills and Patriots, going Over in each of their past two. In those past two Overs, including the one from earlier this season, those totals would have pushed back in Week 8 and went Under in their final meeting of 2019.
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CONSIDER: Patriots +7 (-115)
The Bills are now the superior team in this rivalry, but the Patriots will always have the head-coaching edge, especially on defense with Bill Belichick. Even with a plethora of injures and players opting out in the offseason, New England still employs the seventh-best defense in points allowed per game.
And while the Bills deploy the fifth-best scoring offense in the NFL (29.1 PPG), they were held to 24 points back in their Week 8 meeting with New England, 5.1 points below their per game mark.
The Patriots are 5-3-2 against the spread in their past 10 games with the Bills covering in their Week 8 meeting while pushing the one before that in their final matchup of 2019.
The Bills are 6-0 ATS in their past six games.
The Patriots are 3-3 ATS in their past six games and 2-2 in their past four, failing to cover in each of their past two.
The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in the past four meetings between the Pats and Bills. In this game, the Patriots are the dogs.
CONSIDER: Patriots (+250)
We have seen Upset Specials in the past few weeks. Back in Week 13, the Football Team best the Steelers while the Giants defeated Seattle. Last week we see the Bengals defeat the Steelers while the Jets beat the Rams.
Would it be an upset to see the Patriots beat the Bills? Perhaps, but it is not far-fetched. Bill Belichick knows them well and has owned them for a very long time.
While I won’t recommend taking the Patriots straight up, I would not think you were crazy to do so.
Anthony Cervino is 55-44-1 on his NFL Best Bets in 2020.
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