The Pittsburgh Panthers advanced to the Round of 64 as the Midwest Region’s 11-seed after defeating Mississippi State in their First Four matchup.
With the win, the Panthers will take on the 6-seeded Iowa State Cyclones, who made an improbable run in last year’s NCAA Tournament.
Iowa State wasn’t even able to win 20 games this year in the regular season. But in its defense, it played in the toughest conference in college basketball, the Big 12.
Pittsburgh had a chance to win the ACC regular season championship with under two weeks to play but eventually folded. Still, the Panthers found a way into the NCAA Tournament and already have a win on their resume.
Can Pittsburgh carry that momentum over into Friday’s game?
Read on for my Iowa State Cyclones vs. Pittsburgh Panthers prediction.
Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh Odds
Note: CBB odds mentioned in this article for Iowa State Cyclones vs. Pittsburgh Panthers were used from DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise noted, and are current as of March 15, at 12:30 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Iowa State (-175) | Pittsburgh (+130)
- Spread: Iowa State -4 (-110) | Pittsburgh +4 (-110)
- Total: Over 131.5 (-110) | Under 131.5 (-110)
Iowa State vs Pittsburgh Best Bet
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Keep reading for more Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh betting tips.
Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh Prediction
Pittsburgh 65, Iowa State 58
The Iowa State Cyclones struggled on the offensive end this season. They rarely earned trips to the foul line but fouled at a very high rate defensively.
That’s ultimately not a good recipe for success in the NCAA Tournament.
The Cyclones also shot just 67.4% from the foul line while Pittsburgh shot close to 76%. If Iowa State struggles to force turnovers against Pittsburgh, the Panthers could escape with an upset.
📈 Keep track of March Madness Tournament winner odds to find our best NCAA tourney bets:
Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh Best Bets
Pittsburgh +4 (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
The Panthers didn’t play their best ball against Mississippi State. They also haven’t looked the best in February and March. But overall, Pittsburgh’s numbers stand out against Iowa State.
Pittsburgh limits turnovers to just 16.3% per game. Iowa State’s defense relies on turnovers, forcing opponents to turn the ball over on 25.1% of their possessions, but that aggressiveness also leads to fouls, and Pittsburgh is in the top 50 in free-throw percentage.
At the end of the day, Pittsburgh has the better offense and should find more success scoring the basketball in this matchup.
Under 131.5 Total Points (-110) | DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
KenPom has Iowa State ranked in the top 10 in defensive-adjusted efficiency, but that’s ultimately due to the turnovers they force. If the Cyclones can’t force Pittsburgh into making uncharacteristic mistakes, their defense isn’t nearly as daunting.
Iowa State does rebound well, but opponents have shot 33.8% from three and 49.6% from inside the arc against them. While those numbers are above average defensively, they’re hardly impressive with both ranking about 160th in college basketball.
Pittsburgh has done better defensively, holding teams to 33.2% from three and 48.4% from two. The Cyclones will get more second chances due to their superior rebounding, but they also have a tendency to cough the ball up (their 13.1 turnovers per game are ranked 247th in the country).
The Cyclones don’t get to the foul line as much as Pittsburgh. They also play at a slow pace and their offense hasn’t been playing well of late. Long possessions ending in missed shots should help keep this game below the projected total.
Iowa State Race to 10 Points (-140) | DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: 1 Unit
I’ve got Pittsburgh winning this game, but I also like Iowa State to start the game strong and fade as the fouls pile up.
Pittsburgh has rarely started games off well away from home, and that should be the case in this one, too. The Panthers will get back into this game with their foul shooting, but they won’t be on the foul line much in the first 10 minutes of the first half.
Iowa State vs Pittsburgh Same Game Parlay
Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh SGP (+320) | DraftKings Sportsbook
WAGER: .25 units
- Pittsburgh Moneyline (+140)
- Iowa State Under 67.5 Points (-110)
- Pittsburgh Over 64.5 Points (-105)
If Pittsburgh wins this game, there’s a high chance that the Panthers will score at least 65 points. On the other hand, Iowa State’s offense has been incredibly inconsistent and comes into this one having shot just 43.7% from the field over their last five.
