It all comes down to this.
The 2024 National Championship Game is set, with top seeds UConn and Purdue set to square off at State Farm Stadium in Glendale on Monday night.
Let’s analyze this game from a prop betting perspective and identify some of our favorite UConn vs Purdue props.
College basketball odds referenced for these UConn vs Purdue prop bets are current as of Monday, April 8, and courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
UConn vs Purdue Game Props
UConn: Under 76.5 Points (-120)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
The Huskies have been dominant throughout their run to the final, winning each of their five games by 10-plus points and scoring 77-plus in all but one of those contests.
However, UConn faces its most formidable challenge yet in a Purdue team that should be able to match up defensively across the board.
To this point, few teams have had answers for 7-foot-2 center Donovan Clingan, who is averaging 16.2 points per game in just 24.2 minutes of playing time during the tournament.
In 7-foot-4 Zach Edey, the back-to-back National Player of the Year, Purdue has a legitimate counterpart for Clingan.
- Get ready for the National Championship with our UConn vs Purdue predictions.
Plus, both these teams prefer to play at a slow pace; the Huskies rank 328th nationally in adjusted tempo per Ken Pom, while the Boilermakers are 211th.
Each defense also surrenders under 70 points per game on the year, so I’ll take my chances on this UConn team total Under.
Double Result: Purdue-UConn (+550)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 0.5 units
Most of UConn’s games in the tournament have played out pretty similarly. The Huskies feel out their opponent early on and then pull away in the second half.
Even their 25-plus point victories over San Diego State and Illinois on the tournament’s second weekend were relatively close games in the opening 20 minutes.
Dan Hurley’s squad led the Aztecs 35-31 with two minutes to play in the first half and was tied 23-23 with the Illini at a similar stage before rattling off 30 straight points to blow the game open.
To hit this double-result prop, we’ll need Purdue to go a step further and take a lead — however large or small — into the break. Then, we’ll need UConn to turn things around after halftime.
The Boilermakers (+9.2) rival the Huskies (+9.7) in first-half scoring margin and have +200 odds to win the first half, but UConn is the best second-half team (+8.4) in the country.
That intensity over the 40 minutes makes the defending champs the best team in the country and gives this prop a decent chance of hitting at +550.
UConn vs Purdue Player Props
Zach Edey: Under 24.5 Points (-120)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
This feels like too high of a total in what I’m expecting to be a lower-scoring contest.
Although Edey averages nearly 25 points per game, he won’t have the size advantage in the post that he’s used to against Clingan.
- Go big for the National Championship with our UConn vs Purdue parlays.
He also didn’t benefit from an overzealous whistle on Saturday against NC State, as he attempted just two free throws, his lowest number of attempts this season.
In a game of this magnitude, the referees should be inclined to let the bigs battle it out down low and not decide the game by putting one team in foul trouble, especially early on.
That bodes well for an Under on Edey’s points, which has hit twice already this tournament despite his dominance down low.
Tristen Newton: Over 15.5 Points (-115)
bet365 Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 unit
UConn player props are tough to predict when it comes to scoring because of the team’s balance on the offensive end.
The Huskies have had four different players lead the team in points in five tournament games, which isn’t all that surprising when you consider that all five starters average double-figures on the season.
However, I’m zeroing in on Tristen Newton for this matchup.
The senior guard averages nearly 15 points per game and should be a significant part of the game plan against a Purdue team that can take away Clingan but doesn’t have the same size or athleticism as UConn in the backcourt.
Newton has shone on the National Championship stage before, scoring a game-high 19 points in last year’s win over San Diego State.
He is also due for some shooting regression after making just four of his last 17 attempts over the past two games.
I’m expecting Newton to get back on track as my best college basketball bet today.
UConn vs Purdue Prop Odds
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