The Women’s Final Four concludes this Friday, April 5, with a highly-anticipated matchup between No. 1 Iowa (33-4) and No. 3 UConn (33-5). The winner will advance to take on either South Carolina or NC State in the National Championship.
Caitlin Clark was stellar in the Hawkeyes win over LSU in the Elite 8, notching 41 points, 12 assists, and seven rebounds. The Huskies’ upset of USC was led by Paige Bueckers, who logged 28 points, 10 rebounds, six assists, three steals, and two blocks.
There’s a lot on the line and several storylines to keep track of heading into this Final Four matchup, so let’s get into our best bets and predictions for Iowa vs UConn.
Iowa vs UConn Odds
All NCAAW odds are current as of Wednesday, April 3, at 10 a.m. ET.
- Spread: Iowa -2.5 (-110) • UConn +2.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Iowa (-142) • UConn (+120)
- Total: Over 162.5 (-110) • Under 162.5 (-110)
Iowa gets the nod as a 2.5-point favorite. The Hawkeyes roster college basketball’s best player and have the superior record, so this spread falls in line with expectations.
The Over/Under comes in at 162.5 points. Iowa and UConn are among the most efficient offenses in college basketball — the Hawkeyes a distant No. 1 — but the Huskies also rank inside the top 10 in defensive rating, highlighting their impressive two-way talent.
Iowa vs UConn Prediction
Iowa 87, UConn 80
I like Iowa to come out on top, but don’t think Clark and the Hawkeyes will have an easy time advancing.
Unlike LSU, UConn has several options it can throw at Clark along the perimeter. Bueckers is a terrific defender and is probably the closest thing to an “answer" for the prolific scorer, while senior guard Nika Muhl is a two-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year.
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With that said, my main concern for Iowa is how it intends to defend forward Aaliyah Edwards. The 6-foot-3 senior is incredibly efficient around the rim, and outside of Addison O’Grady, the Hawkeyes don’t have anyone who can match her size.
There are a few good reasons why the Huskies could win this game, but Clark will be the best player on the floor at all times, and she gives Iowa a great chance against any opponent. So long as she delivers — as she often does — the Hawkeyes should prevail.
Iowa vs UConn Best Bets
Iowa -2.5 (-110) vs UConn
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
UConn boasts impressive metrics, an excellent roster, and one of the game’s most legendary coaches, but it hasn’t always delivered against its most difficult opponents this season. The Huskies are just 1-4 against top-15 teams, with the lone win coming over USC on Monday.
Iowa, on the other hand, has gone 4-1 in matchups with top-15 teams and 6-2 against all ranked opponents. Clark is obviously a big reason why the Hawkeyes have excelled in those situations, but co-stars Hannah Stuelke and Kate Martin have risen to the occasion as well.
Clark can elevate her teammates and play her best basketball when the time calls for it, which is why Iowa -2.5 is my best college basketball bet today.
Over 162.5 Points (-110)
DraftKings Sportsbook • WAGER: 1 Unit
UConn’s defense is legit, but that’s not to say it doesn’t have an equally elite offense. The Huskies rank No. 3 in field goal percentage (49.7%) and dish out the fourth-most assists per game, and they likely won’t face much resistance from Iowa’s so-so defense.
Of course, the Hawkeyes rank even higher in both categories and are the nation’s most dangerous team from beyond the arc and in transition. You can throw as many different coverages and players at Clark and Co. as you’d like, but they’re still going to find a way to score.
With that in mind, I’m on the Over at 162.5 points. The offensive potential of both teams is too high to consider a wager on the Under.
