Here is our best MLB Betting Pick of the Day, including the Best Baseball Pick Today 6/15/21. All odds for June 15 MLB bet picks were obtained from BetMGM, which offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. with our hands-on review.
Because Dylan Carlson didn’t touch home plate, we pushed on the St. Louis Cardinals winning the first five innings last night. The Cardinals finished the first five tied at 2-2, but if Carlson had touched home instead of getting thrown out at the plate on a third-inning double by Tyler O’Neill, that bet would’ve cashed. Breaks of the game.
Anyways, we’re back with another first five innings bet for tonight. As always, you can find my bets — including any late additions to the card — on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz. Now, here are some tips for my Best Baseball Pick Today 6/15/21.
- Overall: 14-13 (-0.31 units)
- Team Totals: 6-6 (+0.15 units)
- First 5 IP Bets: 4-3-4 (+0.34 units)
- Moneylines: 3-3 (-0.5 units)
- Totals: 1-1 (-0.3 units)
MLB Betting Pick of the Day: Best Baseball Pick Today 6/15/21
Boston Red Sox @ Atlanta Braves (7:20 p.m. ET)
- Red Sox @ Braves 6/15/21 Game Preview
- Probable Pitchers: LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) vs. LHP Tucker Davidson (ATL)
Braves to win the first five innings (-105)
Wager: 1.05 units
The Boston Red Sox will send Eduardo Rodiguez to the mound, and he somehow has a winning record (5-4) despite a 6.03 ERA. Rodriguez has struggled lately, losing his last four decisions and posting an ugly 8.49 ERA over his last six starts. He’s allowed at least four earned runs in five of those outings, while opposing batters have slashed .331/.387/.532 against him during that span.
Rodriguez has been hit hard this year, as his 35.0% hard-hit rate, 88.1 mph average exit velocity, and 24.7% line-drive rate are all career worsts. According to FanGraphs, all of his pitch types have negative run values this year, including his four-seam fastball, which is sitting at the lowest average velocity of his career (92.8 mph).
The lefty’s skid may continue against an Atlanta Braves team that has a .291 ISO and a .422 wOBA against southpaws in the last 30 days. The Braves boast a righty-heavy lineup that has been lethal at home this year, averaging 5.21 runs per game at Truist Park.
On the other hand, Tucker Davidson will get the call for Atlanta. He’s been excellent in his three starts this season, compiling a 1.53 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP across 17 2/3 innings. Davidson has also done a great job keeping the ball on the ground and limiting hard contact, posting a 47.9% ground-ball rate and allowing just one homer thus far.
Boston has been one of the least effective teams against left-handers this year, ranking in the bottom 10 in wRC+ (94). The Red Sox offense has been scuffling lately as well, averaging 4.1 runs per game over their last 21 contests.
Overall, this is an enticing matchup for Atlanta. Rodriguez has been torched by right-handers this year (.833 OPS), and the Braves have a lineup that can take advantage of him early and often. Given Boston’s struggles against lefties this year, they’ll likely have a hard time putting runs on the board early, giving Atlanta a good chance to cash this bet for us.