World Cup Group Winner Predictions - Mexico’s Altitude Advantage
Mexico are co-hosts of the 2026 World Cup, along with the USA and Canada. While the hosts are usually considered to have an advantage in the World Cup, the fact that the competition is played across an entire continent dilutes this somewhat.
However, in the group stages at least, Mexico may have an even greater advantage than the average host team. All their games will be played in Mexico at either the Estadio Azteca or the Akron Stadium, both of which are over 5,000ft above sea level. This will pose a significant challenge to teams unaccustomed to playing at altitude - here’s why it makes Mexico favourites for the group.
Who Is in Group A With Mexico?
Mexico will play against South Africa, South Korea, and the Czech Republic in Group A. This isn’t a group of pushovers - South Africa and South Korea both topped their qualifying groups and have some real talent in their squads. The Czech Republic qualified behind Croatia in European qualifying, but are certainly capable of producing an upset.
Why Mexico Are Favourites to Win Group A
On paper, Mexico should already be favourites to win this group. They’re arguably the strongest team of the four, and home advantage in the group stage is significant. Mexican fans are incredibly passionate, and opposing teams can expect an intimidating atmosphere whenever they come up against the co-hosts.
However, arguably the greatest advantage comes from the Mexican football grounds being used. The two venues they will use in Group A are the Akron Stadium in Zapopan, and the Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. The former sits at around 5,100ft above sea level, while the Estadio Azteca is around 7,200ft above sea level. It’s notorious as one of the most challenging grounds to visit in global football.
Why the Estadio Azteca Is Such a Challenging Venue
Playing at the Estadio Azteca is the definition of being taken out of your comfort zone. It has a capacity of over 87,000, most of which will be filled by raucous Mexican football fans. It’s located in the capital, Mexico City, which is the most populous city in North America. And because of the altitude, it’s quite difficult to breathe if you’re not used to it.
It’s not quite as challenging as, say, the Hernando Siles Stadium in Bolivia, which sits at over 11,700ft above sea level, and is often considered responsible for Bolivia over-performing against superior opposition in home games. However, the air is noticeably thinner, which makes it harder to breathe, and also means that the ball itself can move slightly differently, travelling further and higher.
Players frequently become fatigued earlier when playing at height, and while not all Mexican players play all their games at the Estadio Azteca, they’re accustomed to playing home games at height. For this reason, it should be considered a significant advantage for the home side.
What Altitude Is the Akron Stadium?
Even the one game played away from Mexico City is a challenge: it’s played at the Akron Stadium, which is over 5,000ft above sea level. While this is noticeably less challenging, it can still catch players unawares, especially as the second half drags on and weariness sets in.
Mexico’s Games in Group A
So who will Mexico be playing, and where? Two games will be played at the Estadio Azteca, with one further game being played at the Akron Stadium.
South Africa
Mexico will first host South Africa in Mexico City. Of all their opponents, South Africa may be the best-placed to face them at altitude, as South Africa is a highly mountainous country and its sporting events are often played at altitude.
South African lung capacity is no joke, as we discovered at the 2010 World Cup where the vuvuzela was introduced to the world. Back then, the home team performed better than expected in a tough group, being knocked out on goal difference by - of all teams - Mexico. This could be a spicy rematch.
South Korea
South Korea have been training to play at altitude, and this should benefit them when they face Mexico at the Akron Stadium. South Korea are a good side, and should fancy their chances of challenging the hosts even at an intimidating ground.
Czech Republic
The Czech Republic are likely to struggle at the Estadio Azteca, but shouldn’t be written off. Mexico will be keen to end their group run with a win whatever their current position, and this will be a big game.
Should You Bet on Mexico to Win Group A?
Mexico are favoured by the bookies to win Group A, and should be considered a fairly safe bet. However, there are only 3 games - take the home advantage for granted at your peril. Knowing the context of these games should help you make an informed decision.
