Supercomputer Predicts World Cup Winner

Who Does Opta Give the Best Odds of Winning the World Cup?

According to Opta’s supercomputer, Spain have the best chance of winning the World Cup with a 16.02% chance. Spain last won the World Cup in 2010, and have not made a final since. However, the current Spanish squad is very strong, with a fantastic goalkeeper in Arsenal’s David Raya, the established strength of strikers Ferran Torres and Mikel Oyarzabal, and a solid spine that includes Manchester City’s Rodri.

Spain have a great mixture of experience and youth, which is typically a good sign in major tournaments. The team went through a period of restructuring after their aging golden generation retired, but victory at Euro 2024 has already given their younger players experience of success at the highest level, and they will be keen to build on that on the biggest stage of all.

Injury Concerns Are a Real Problem for Spain

However, there is a risk for Spain. Lamine Yamal is still recovering from a hamstring injury sustained in April. This has dismayed the tournament’s organisers as much as Spanish football fans, as the young striker was billed as one of the faces of the tournament. It remains to be seen if he will regain fitness in time for the tournament, and if he does recover, he may only be able to play for limited periods. Hamstring injuries have a habit of recurring without proper rest and recovery.

Worse news would be that Spain’s talismanic holding midfielder Rodri was unfit to play. Rodri has suffered repeated injuries over the past year and a half, after a truly astonishing 74-game streak without losing a game with his club Manchester City gave rise to the myth that “if Rodri plays, they win.” While Rodri seems likely to be fit for the World Cup, Spanish football fans will be praying that Pep Guardiola wraps him in cotton wool until the end of the domestic season.

Losing Lamal would be a problem. Losing Rodri could be the difference between winning and losing the trophy.

Which Teams Have a High Chance to Win the World Cup?

Opta’s supercomputer gave percentage chances for all teams, and besides Spain, its top picks were France (12.54%), England (10.66%), and Argentina (10.09%).

France have strength throughout their team and should be considered Spain’s main rivals. While losing Hugo Ekitike is a blow, Kylian Mbappe has proven himself at the highest level for club and country time and time again, and is a certified “Big Occasion” player. France aren’t short of supporting attacking options, and while their defense may sometimes appear questionable, they’re a very dangerous prospect and likely to ease their way to the later rounds.

England have plenty of talent throughout their team, but in a familiar story for England fans, appear slightly unsure of how to make the most of it. If things click under Thomas Tuchel, England could suddenly be a major threat - but for now, it’s hard to see them beating France or Spain.

Argentina, the reigning champions, have one of the most experienced squads at the tournament. Once again, the question hanging over the team is whether Lionel Messi will play. Messi has been included in the country’s longlist of players, but hasn’t been confirmed yet. Given his superstar status in the USA, which is co-hosting the tournament, there will be much anticipation for the little genius to put on one last show. Whether he can make the difference for an aging Argentina side is a different question - but it’s a brave bettor who suggests that he can’t!

Long-Odds Contenders to Win the FIFA World Cup

If you’re betting on the World Cup winner and looking for a long-shot contender (or you’ve already drawn your office World Cup sweepstake), Opta has given outsider odds to Portugal, Brazil, and Germany. The latter two feel surprising, but they’ve underperformed at recent tournaments, and Germany no longer have the reassuring presence of Manuel Neuer in goal.

Portugal have a habit of performing well in big tournaments, and Cristiano Ronaldo will be playing in his 6th World Cup. As with Messi, it’s a brave bettor who says he can’t change the course of the tournament.

Our Verdict on the Supercomputer’s World Cup Predictions

Spain and France should be overwhelming favourites to take home the trophy, but even with its expanded format, the World Cup is still a knockout tournament: you only have to win a few games. That opens up the playing field to outsiders and makes long-odds bets seem much more attractive. And what do supercomputers know about football, anyway?