Roland Garros 2026 Women Odds: Sabalenka or Swiatek?
The bookmakers are clear that they believe another final between Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka is upcoming at Roland Garros 2026. So who is likely to win this round if the two do meet?
Who Is a Favourite in This Match?
The bookmakers currently have Iga Swiatek as the overall favourite to win the tournament. The simple and most compelling reason to favour Swiatek is that she has won the French Open four times previously, while Sabalenka has yet to taste victory at Roland Garros.
Sabalenka has won four Grand Slams, two on each of the hard courts (US and Australia). However, her record on clay leaves much to be desired, with 2025 representing the only time she’s made it to the French Open final. It’s worth noting that she beat Swiatek to reach the final on that occasion. Other than that, she’s only made the semi-final once, in 2023.
Meanwhile, Swiatek won her first French Open in 2020 and went on a three-tournament streak from 2022-24. She fell to Sabalenka in the semi-final last year, but few would argue that she has the advantage on clay.
History of Their Clashes (Statistics)
The pair haven’t met since last year’s French Open, where Sabalenka claimed victory to progress to the final and ended Swiatek’s winning streak at Roland Garros. Overall, they have played each other 13 times, with Swiatek holding an 8-5 lead.
It’s worth observing where that winning streak comes from. The pair have a 3-3 record on hard courts, but Swiatek leads 5-2 on clay. With the French Open being the pinnacle of clay court tennis, the odds must favour Swiatek here.
Match Odds
Bookmakers haven’t published odds for the final yet, but you can see from the table below that Swiatek and Sabalenka are the runaway favourites to win the tournament, with only Coco Gauff coming close. Swiatek is favoured by most bookies at present, but that may change based on the run-up to the final.
If you’re looking for an outside pick, or you think that Swiatek or Sabalenka might fall prey to an upset before the final, you can check out the odds on the rest of the top field using the table below. Odds correct as of May 28th 2026.
| Player | Bet365 | Bwin | Betsson |
| Iga Swiatek | 2/1 | 11/5 | 11/5 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | 21/10 | 12/5 | 7/2 |
| Coco Gauff | 5/1 | 11/2 | 31/5 |
| Mirra Andreeva | 13/2 | 15/2 | 11/1 |
| Elina Svitolina | 12/1 | 12/1 | 34/1 |
| Marta Kostyuk | 14/1 | 14/1 | 28/1 |
| Karolina Muchova | 16/1 | 18/1 | 29/1 |
| Victoria Mboko | 28/1 | 28/1 | 14/1 |
Conclusion
Of course, both players have to make the final first, and that will mean overcoming reigning champion Coco Gauff. Sabalenka is due to meet Gauff in the semi-finals if both progress far enough, with the winner going on to face either Swiatek or the winner of the lower bracket half in the final.
This isn’t a two-horse race, despite what the bookmakers say - but it will be a sizzling match-up as always if both players make the final.
