EPL Champion Odds: Who Will Win the Premier League?
Arsenal and Manchester City are the only two teams left in the 2025/26 Premier League title race. It’s been a season full of drama, with Arsenal appearing to be clear earlier in the year, only for a series of bad results and a Man City rally to bring the race back to neck-and-neck.
There can be only one - so here are my thoughts on who the PL winner will be, and why.
Who Will Win the Premier League This Year?
It’s fair to say that it’s been one of the grittier title fights in recent years. Arsenal have made a fine art of what, for many years, they were accused of being unable to do - grind out results and “win ugly.” However, this approach has come at the expense of some of the goals their free-flowing sides racked up in previous years, and has exposed some surprisingly vulnerabilities when their set-piece routines aren’t firing. Dropping 5 points overall to 20th placed Wolves is just one such example.
Meanwhile, Manchester City have had a mixed season. They haven’t been the same team that has ruled the Premier League under Pep Guardiola for the past decade, but it speaks volumes that this is one of their weakest seasons and they’re still genuine contenders at the finish.
Pep, the master, has always got the better of his protege Arteta over the past few seasons. Could this finally be the turning point?
Odds on EPL Winners This Year
The odds currently favour Arsenal, who have 3 games left to play compared to Manchester City’s 4 remaining games. Arsenal are 5 points ahead, which means that if they win all their games, the title is guaranteed to be theirs.
However, some will fancy an outside shot at Manchester City while the odds are good. Arsenal’s reputation for slipping on banana skins at the last minute is as great as City’s reputation for overcoming their rivals, and while this may feel superstitious, there are sure to be those who still believe City can do it.
Arsenal
Arsenal have led the Premier League for the vast majority of this season, but nobody would say it’s felt easy or secure. Bursts ahead of the pack have always been tempered by dips in form, and the team has struggled to score as many goals from open play as you’d expect from the league leaders.
Manchester City
Manchester City have struggled for form consistently this season, but betting against City winning the league has proven a fool’s game too many times. Bookies have been understandably cautious in embracing Arsenal’s long-time lead and putting long odds on a Manchester City win - Pep Guardiola’s teams often find a way to get the job done, whether that means ruthlessly chasing down Liverpool in 2013-14 or the legendary “Aguerroooooo!” moment.
Arsenal Now Favourites to Win After Man City Stumble Against Everton
Manchester City narrowly rescued a point against Everton on Monday evening, with the Toffees coming back from 1-0 to lead 3-1 against the odds. Haaland immediately scored again for City, but it took until the 97th minute for Jeremy Doku to equalise.
This means that the title race is no longer “technically” equal. Before the Everton match, City could overhaul Arsenal on goal difference if they won every game. Now, they need Arsenal to slip up and draw or lose at least one game.
Man City’s Congested Fixture List
City have a rough schedule ahead of them to end the season. Success in the domestic cups has seen their Premier League games delayed, and their run-in includes 5 games in 16 days. This includes a tough home match against Aston Villa on the final day of the season, who will likely be fighting to claim 4th place. They also face Chelsea in the FA Cup final on May 16th.
Could Arsenal Still “Do an Arsenal”?
Arsenal’s next fixture is the home leg of their Champions League semi-final against Atletico Madrid, and the Gunners find themselves in a promising but difficult situation - trying to bring home a Premier League title without taking their eyes off the glory of a possible first Champions League title. Their Premier League fixtures include:
- West Ham (away)
- Burnley (home)
- Crystal Palace (away)
All three teams are in the bottom third of the table, but every game needs to be taken 100% seriously. If Arsenal lose the title now, the entire club will suffer a devastating mental blow, along with gleeful mockery from the rest of the English football world. Surely, even Arsenal can’t do an Arsenal at this point?
Predicting the EPL Winner
The smart money has to be on Arsenal at this point. They have the easier run-in, and City have already blinked first. However, it’s never too late in the EPL.
