Chelsea vs Man City Odds - Saturday 16th May FA Cup Final
Chelsea and Manchester City face off for the FA Cup final on Saturday 16th May. Both teams have numerous trophies in their cabinets - Manchester City have taken home 7 cups, while Chelsea have won 8 in total.
So who will win on the 16th? The clubs’ fixture lists, recent form, and head-to-head records should all be considered, so let’s take a look.
Who Is the Favourite to Win the FA Cup Final?
The easy favourites to win the FA Cup are Manchester City. This can’t be a surprise - Pep Guardiola’s City are a winning machine. They have won 2 of the last 7 FA Cups and been finalists in all of the last 3.
If we’re going on FA Cup recent history, Chelsea are no slouches. They have been in 5 of the last 9 finals, with their last victory coming in 2017-18. While Chelsea may not be favourites, they always pose a threat, and have game-changing players like Cole Palmer who can rise to big moments.
Still, on the balance of probabilities, Manchester City should certainly be favourites.
Manchester City FA Cup Odds
Manchester City are favoured by all bookies to win the final, with odds typically averaging around 1/2 or even 1/3. One reason for this is simply that Manchester City are extremely good at winning silverware. Their trophy cabinet under Pep Guardiola has been overflowing, and even though this season hasn’t been their best run of form, they still won the League Cup against an Arsenal side tipped to potentially win a quadruple.
They love Wembley, and Wembley loves them. That’s not to say that an upset is impossible, though; City have been far from their dominant best recently, and we’ll touch on that shortly.
Chelsea FA Cup Odds
Chelsea are given odds of around 2/1 or 7/4 by most bookies. I’d say this represents quite a good deal for upset-seekers - cup finals are notoriously unpredictable games. Crystal Palace beat Manchester City last year, so who’s to say Chelsea can’t do the same?
Chelsea are a good team. They have players who can make a difference. Bettors looking for a bigger payout than a safe(ish) bet on Manchester City might consider backing a Chelsea win.
Each Team’s Recent Form
Premier League form is notoriously unreliable when it comes to predicting FA Cup performances, but it’d be silly to discount it. Let’s also consider how each club got here - who had the harder run-in?
Manchester City
Manchester City undoubtedly had the harder path to the final. Their road involved a 4-0 thrashing of Liverpool and a 3-1 away victory against Newcastle United. While their 2-1 defeat of Southampton in the semi-finals looks routine, it’s worth remembering that this is the same Southampton team that dumped Arsenal out of the cup in the previous round.
City’s form in the league has been ominously strong lately. They’ve been breathing down Arsenal’s necks, and even the recent draw against Everton, while disastrous for their title campaign, showed how deadly they are. City pulled it back from 3-1 to grab a point in the seventh minute of stoppage time. Doing that in a cup final tends to take the wind out of your opponent’s sails, so Chelsea must not switch off if they’re ahead.
Chelsea
Chelsea have had a fairly easy run to the final. Their full list of opponents includes Leeds United, Port Vale, Wrexham, Hull City, and Charlton Athletic. With all due respect to these teams, many of whom put in outstanding performances throughout the cup, Manchester City had a much more difficult path to get here.
The bad news is that Chelsea’s form in the league has been abysmal recently. They’ve lost their last 6 games on the bounce, and need to break that losing streak quickly if they’re to have any hope of beating Man City.
Who Has an Easier Fixture List Around the Final?
One thing that may work in Chelsea’s favour is that Man City’s upcoming fixture list is cluttered, to say the least. The final comes in the middle of a run of 5 games in 16 days for City, with every other fixture being a must-win Premier League game. While Pep certainly values the cup, if it’s a choice between the Premier League and the FA Cup in terms of resting players, it’s clear which trophy City will prioritise.
Chelsea have one less game in the same space of time, so may be able to play a more rested squad in the final. Whether that will be enough to make the difference is another question.
FA Cup Final Winner: Our Verdict
It always takes a brave gambler to bet against City. However, there is clear upset potential here, with City’s chock-a-block fixture list and patchy form this year. You don’t get massive payouts from betting on Guardiola’s Man City, but you are much more likely to see a return on your money.
