One of the most intriguing matchups in Week 12 comes between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Indianapolis Colts. Tampa Bay has an elite offense, led by Tom Brady, along with a defense that excels at stopping the opposing team’s rushing attack.
The Buccaneers were able to bounce back after two straight losses to the New Orleans Saints and the Washington Football Team in Week 11 against the New York Giants. Tampa Bay controlled the game from the moment the first kickoff took place, trouncing New York 30-10 at home.
As for Indianapolis, they lean on Jonathan Taylor and their ground game on offense, while their defense has been inconsistent all season. Just this past week, the Colts were able to blowout the Buffalo Bills, in large part due to Taylor and the defense doing a fantastic job slowing down Josh Allen.
If the Buccaneers jump out to an early lead and prevent the Colts from running the ball with Taylor as often as they’d like, can Carson Wentz lead them to a victory? Will Indianapolis’ defense be able to put together two straight phenomenal performances in a row to limit Brady and Tampa Bay’s effective offense?
Check out my best game props for this contest below to find out how I envision this game going.
Please note that all NFL gameday odds are current as of 3 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 18.
Buccaneers vs Colts Prop Bets: NFL Week 12 Prop Betting Picks
First-Half Spread: Buccaneers -1.5 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
All signs point toward this being a game where the Buccaneers are going to fail to cover the spread. Tampa Bay is 0-5 against the spread as the road team this season, and they are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six meetings with Indianapolis.
However, I’ll side with Brady to put the Buccaneers in a position where they can control the game early in the first half. In Tampa Bay’s first 10 games of the season, they’ve held a lead at halftime in six of them. All we need for the Buccaneers to do is have at least a two-point lead when the teams head to the locker room at halftime.
The Colts are also a strong team when it comes to seizing a lead at halftime this season. Despite failing to earn a lead at halftime in their first three games, Indianapolis has now gone eight straight games where they hold a lead at the midway point.
With both teams looking to control the tempo of the game, I’ll elect to go with the Buccaneers, who have the upper hand at the quarterback position.
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Buccaneers @ Colts Total Points: Under 53 (-110) at Caesars
Wager: 1 Unit
Contrary to what some may believe, I see this game heavily favoring the Buccaneers. The Colts boast the No. 2 ranked defense in rush DVOA, but they also have the No. 20 ranked defense in pass DVOA.
As we all know, Tampa Bay’s offense would prefer to air it out 45-50 times with Brady with the assortment of weapons they have on offense. Though, it will be interesting to see if Mike Evans will be able to suit up on Sunday as he deals with back tightness.
If Evans is unable to go — or if he’s limited in any capacity — the Buccaneers are already without Antonio Brown, so the offense could operate at a slower pace than usual. And for the Colts, they want to try and pound the football, which can put a dent in the clock throughout the game.
Both teams are capable of scoring points in bunches, but I actually view this game as one where the Buccaneers could win with ease on the road. While Tampa Bay could put up 27-30 points themselves, I don’t know if I envision Indianapolis being able to score enough points against the stout run defense of the Buccaneers.