Week 11 of the NFL season is upon us and the overreactions are loud on the streets. We are more than halfway through the regular season and now have a better idea of which teams are contenders and which are pretenders.
That said, this is still a small sample size of games. Those that have been played can be dug through and sprinkled with context to become useful. Team-adjusted stats like DVOA have some value, and we also have to be aware of how injuries have affected teams to this point.
With that in mind, let’s dive into some NFL Week 11 upset predictions and best bets.
All NFL gameday odds are current as of 3:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, November 18.
NFL Week 11 Upset Predictions
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets
After beating the vaunted Ravens last Thursday, the Dolphins are coming off of 10 days’ rest and heading into New York (New Jersey, technically) to face their division rival, the Jets.
This game will be Tua Tagovailoa‘s first “official" start since fracturing on Halloween against the Bills. Tagovailoa is reportedly still recovering from the injury, but he did look good last week.
For those who may have missed the game, there were several broken plays resulting from miscommunications on the Ravens’ defense. Most notably, a deep shot to Albert Wilson where no one was within 10 yards of him.
The Dolphins are not a team without talent but they have several holes that even the flimsy Jets can take advantage of at home. The offense remains a cluster of mid-level talent that gets by despite poor game-planning and their defense, despite last week’s showing, is lackluster, especially when compared to last year’s stalwart squad.
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New York is also making a QB change from the low aDOT Mike White to Super Bowl XLVII MVP Joe Flacco. Clearly, the days of “elite" Flacco are long gone but he does have a case as the best current QB in this room that could revamp an offense with a good line and weapons such as Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Michael Carter, and Ty Johnson.
Yes, the Jets’ defense is still horrendous but they might not have to do much against the Dolphins’ OL which has given up the most pressures in the NFL.
Upset Prediction: Jets 26, Dolphins 20
Dolphins vs Jets Upset Picks
Upset Pick: Jets Moneyline (+150) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
Forget the points, this moneyline is too juicy at (+150) not to grab. New York is not good but neither is Miami which makes this one of those games where a team who makes fewer mistakes should win. Now that the Jets aren’t starting a rookie QB, it should be them.
Upset Pick: Over 45 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
These teams just barely squeak over the line here. New York’s offense could look the best it’s had all season and Miami should at least put up some points against the worst defense in the NFL that is bottom-two against the pass and rush.
Washington Football Team vs Carolina Panthers
This game pits Cam Newton versus his former head coach Ron Rivera. While this may be exciting, it is tough to ignore that this is Newton’s first start all season after being with the team for just a week-and-a-half.
Newton looked incredible on goal-line packages last week as he always does, and playing with Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore should help but it’s hard to ignore
I’m not going to use something unquantifiable like “Rivera knows Newton", but if we look at the Washington defensive line versus Carolina’s offensive line, the advantage goes to Washington.
Carolina is second in pressures allowed which is a huge reason why Sam Darnold struggled so mightily and ended up getting hurt. Even without star EDGE Chase Young, Washington should reign hell on Newton all game long.
Yes, Carolina’s defense is probably the biggest strength in this game as they are 3rd in DVOA but they remain weak against the rush (19th) which is what Washington will aim to do with the seemingly healthy Antonio Gibson who is coming off of a two touchdown game.
Washington’s OL has been a major strength this season and should do its part in holding off the Panthers’ revamped D.
Upset Prediction: WFT 20, Panthers 17
WFT vs Panthers Upset Picks
Upset Pick: Washington Moneyline (+135) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
Both of these teams will focus on not turning the ball over and playing to their strengths on the ground.
The Panthers will find that it was easier to bring in Newton for packaged plays last week than to keep him in for 60 minutes with little preparation in a new system.
You can take the 3 points on Washington for just (-105), but I am confident enough that this is an outright win.
Upset Pick: Under 43.5 Total Points (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
Washington might be significantly worse on D than last season, especially against the pass (29th in DVOA), thanks to their poor secondary/LBs but their rush defense is top-eight and that’s what will matter against a Newton-led Panthers.
Carolina will do a fine job holding their own against Washington’s poor offense while allowing an occasional score which will not be enough for this over.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 11 Upset Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 11 Best Bets and NFL Week 11 Prop Bets.
