Dolphins vs Jaguars Predictions Week 6 | NFL Pick of the Day
Both of these teams are coming off disappointing losses. The Jaguars are currently winless, with losses already against incredibly weak opponents like the Texans and Titans. The Dolphins were just destroyed in their regional matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and have now fallen to 1-4.
Neither of these teams is in the position they wanted to be at the start of the season, but there is still plenty of football to be played.
The Jaguars are dealing with a lot of drama, but they have one of the highest-rated rookies at quarterback. The Dolphins are a very well-coached team with talent on both sides of the ball. Neither one of these teams is done for.
Dolphins quarterback and former first-round pick, Tua Tagovailoa, is returning off of the IR, and they need him to turn things around massively this week.
Let’s dive into our best bets for this matchup in the latest installment of our NFL pick of the day series. All odds and lines are current as of 4 PM EST on Friday, October 15.
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Dolphins vs Jaguars Predictions
The Dolphins came into this season with sky-high expectations, and unfortunately, we’ve seen nothing but disappointment so far. A lot of it falls on the offense’s inability to move the ball and the complete and utter lack of explosive plays.
Tua Tagovailoa will continue to face a lot of pressure, considering where he was drafted, and it’s do-or-die time for the young quarterback.
The Jaguars are coming into this game lacking optimism for the future, but the silver lining definitely has been Trevor Lawrence the last two weeks. While he isn’t lighting the world on fire by any stretch of the imagination, we’re finally starting to see some of the elite traits come to fruition.
In both of the last two performances, Lawrence utilized his legs more, keeping secondaries honest. Those performances did come against the Bengals and Titans’ secondaries, which aren’t very strong.
The Dolphins will be the toughest secondary they have faced so far, so it will be important to monitor Lawrence going against a more challenging task here.
Overall, I think this game is going to play at a very slow pace. I’m expecting the Dolphins defense to force at least one of two turnovers and the offense to be able to hold on to the lead.
Prediction: Dolphins 24, Jaguars 20
Dolphins vs. Jaguars Best Bets
Best Bet: Dolphins Under 24.5 (-115) at DraftKings
Wager: 1 Unit
Miami Dolphins Under 24.5 Total Points (MIA @ JAX, NFL Week 6)
MIA @ JAC | 10/17, 9:30 AM ET
Bet $20, Payout $37
Deciding between the total under versus the Dolphins team total under was tough, but I think the Dolphins provide more value.
These numbers may not be fully reflective of the current team if Tagovailoa is indeed healthy, but he started the season against the Patriots, and the Dolphins only scored 17 points in that game. The Patriots’ name may be intimidating on paper, but they allowed 28 points against the Saints and 22 against the Texans, two of the worst offenses in football.
The Dolphins aren’t made to blow teams out and score a lot of points. Coach Brain Flores built this team on defense and ball control, and they will stick to that for as long as possible.
The Jaguars don’t present a very challenging defense, but their weakest area is probably run defense, an area that Miami may struggle to exploit.
Overall, this number is just too high. I get the books are willing to give Tua another chance against a bad Jaguars defense, but frankly, I don’t think he’s that much of an upgrade over Jacoby Brissett, especially if he’s not fully healthy yet.
Best Bet: Under 46.5 Total Points (-110) at WynnBet
Wager: 1 Unit
Total Points Under 46.5 (MIA @ JAX, NFL Week 6)
MIA @ JAC | 10/17, 9:30 AM ET
Bet $20, Payout $38
This is fairly simple.
If we like the Dolphins team total under, then we probably also like the game’s total under. While the Jaguar’s offense has shown some flashes over the last couple of weeks, this is the biggest test they will face.
I’m confident that Brian Flores gets this team turned around, and that starts with a win against the Jaguars. I’m expecting a low-scoring win for the Dolphins in this one.