Chiefs Super Bowl Prop Bets, Tips & Picks: Patrick Mahomes Bet Easy To Cash?

Read the best Chiefs Super Bowl Prop Bets, Tips and Picks for this year’s NFL Championship, including Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Props. Chiefs Super Bowl Prop odds and lines come from PointsBet. Chiefs Prop Odds are current as of Friday night. 

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Check out Chiefs-Buccaneers Bet Tips and Chiefs-Buccaneers picks in the Super Bowl 55 Betting Guide. Don’t miss Buccaneers Super Bowl Prop Bets.

Chiefs Super Bowl Prop Bets & Tips

Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 Passing TDs (-135)

Patrick Mahomes
Over 2.5 Pass TDs(-135)

KC @ TB | 02/07, 6:30 PM

I’ve taken this Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl prop bet in both of the Chiefs’ playoff games this postseason. And I won’t hesitate to go back to the well once more.

It lost in the Divisional Round, when Mahomes was knocked out of the game and put into concussion protocol midway through the third quarter the Kansas City’s 22-17 win over the Browns. Prior to exiting the game, the star QB was 21-of-30 for 255 yards and one passing touchdown. He added a rushing TD early in that contest and was forced to watch as backup Chad Henne did just enough for the Chiefs to advance.

Then in the AFC Championship, this Mahomes prop bet hit as he threw for 3 TDs on 29-of-38 passing. The Chiefs added two more rushing touchdowns on their way to a 38-24 victory to advance to the Super Bowl.

But it’s the Week 12 meeting between the Chiefs and the Buccaneers that really makes me like this prop. Mahomes had another three passing TDs in that one, while going 37-of-49 for 462 yards. He totaled six games during the regular-season games (in 15 starts) where this prop bet would have hit, and I expect the Chiefs to once again lean on their passing game to get into the end zone — at least three times via the pass.


Travis Kelce Anytime TD Scorer (-164)

Travis Kelce
Anytime TD Scorer(-164)

KC @ TB | 02/07, 6:30 PM

Here’s another prop that I’ve bet during both Chiefs playoff games — and cashed twice.

Travis Kelce had not one, but two touchdown catches in the AFC title game, while racking up a Chiefs playoff record of 13 receptions. Those TD grabs gave the All Pro tight end a total of 14 on the season (including playoffs) and extended his touchdown streak to six games. It also gave Kelce at least one receiving TD in eight of his last 10 contests.

While the -164 odds are a tough pill to swallow, Kelce will undoubtedly get enough opportunities to cash in on this anytime TD prop. He has at least 10 targets and seven receptions in nine of the 10 games during this recent touchdown hot streak.  

Chiefs Super Bowl Prop Bets, Tips and Picks: Count on Travis Kelce to score in Super Bowl 55 for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Chiefs Super Bowl Prop Bets, Tips and Picks: Count on Travis Kelce to score in Super Bowl 55 for the Kansas City Chiefs. (USA TODAY Sports)


Away Team First Touchdown Scorer: Travis Kelce (+270)

 

Travis Kelce
Away Team 1st TD(+270)

KC @ TB | 02/07, 6:30 PM

This leads directly into a plus-odds prop for Kelce. Having scored seven TDs in his last six games, Zeus was his team’s first touchdown scorer twice during that span. He was the Chiefs’ second touchdown scorer another three times and scored their last two in the AFC Championship against the Bills.

The other players to score first for KC in those six games were Tyreek Hill (+270) twice, Mahomes (+1000) once, and Mecole Hardman (+750) last week. This has me considering either taking Hill with this same prop, or his anytime TD scorer prop at -164 as well.

But with Kelce’s target share, specifically in the red zone, I’ll take my chances with close to 3-to-1 odds that he’s the first Chief to hit pay dirt come Super Bowl Sunday. 


Point Spread 2nd Quarter: Chiefs -0.5 (-110)

Kansas City Chiefs
Spread 2nd Qtr -0.5(-110)

KC @ TB | 02/07, 6:30 PM

The second quarter is when the Chiefs typically kick things into gear, especially in the playoffs.

In the AFC Championship, they outscored the Bills, 21 to 3, after falling behind 9-0 in the first quarter.

In the Divisional Round, it was the same story. The Chiefs outscored the Browns, 13 to 0, in that second quarter.

Going back to the regular season, the Chiefs outscored their opponents in the second quarter three times, tied twice and surprisingly put up fewer points in three games over the last eight that Mahomes played in. Of note, the Chiefs outscored their opponents by a combined 27 to 3 in the three games they didn’t win the second quarter outright.

There’s more than enough data here for me to take close to even-money odds on the defending champs outscoring Brady and Co. in the second quarter on Feb. 7.


Clyde Edwards-Helaire Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

C. Edwards-Helaire
Over 30.5 Rush Yards(-115)

KC @ TB | 02/07, 6:30 PM

I’ve given you lots of insight on Mahomes and the Chiefs’ passing game, so let’s close out with a rushing prop. And since unders are no fun, let’s go with the over on 30.5 rush yards for Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Edwards-Helaire was the team’s clear lead back before he injured his hip and ankle in Week 15. In his 13 regular season games, CEH topped 30 yards 11 times, including Week 12 against the Bucs (11 carries for 37 yards). The only two times he didn’t eclipse this total was in Weeks 8 and 9 heading into the Chiefs’ bye.

Darrel Williams has done a more than serviceable job filling in for Edwards-Helaire, but CEH quietly played more offensive snaps than Williams did in his return to the field in the AFC title game. With two weeks to rest up and an entire offseason to heal, look for the rookie to get enough carries to top 30 yards on the ground.


Done with Chiefs Super Bowl Prop Bets, Tips and Picks? Check out more NFL analysis

Done reading about the best Chiefs Super Bowl Prop Bets, Tips and Picks? Have you chosen your Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl Prop? Check out what else we have to offer before choosing your Chiefs Super Bowl Props:

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