Week 5 will feature a rookie quarterback showdown in Houston as the New England Patriots (1-3) take on the Houston Texans (1-3). Mac Jones and the Patriots are coming off back-to-back defeats at home, including a closely-contested 19-17 Week 4 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tom Brady‘s return to Gillette Stadium.
As for the Texans, they’re reeling from their worst loss of the season after getting shut out by the Buffalo Bills in Week 4. Since blowing out the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1, Houston has lost three straight games by double-digits while rookie signal-caller Davis Mills has scuffled.
Will Week 5 bring another lopsided loss for the Texans? Or will Houston upset New England at home in what is expected to be a low-scoring matchup? Check out my Patriots vs Texans predictions and best bets in our NFL pick of the day series.
Please note that all odds are current as of Friday, October 8.
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Patriots vs Texans Prediction
The Patriots nearly toppled the defending Super Bowl champs in Week 4, narrowly missing a go-ahead field goal late in the fourth quarter that ultimately cost them the game.
Despite the disappointing finish, New England played well on both sides of the ball. Bill Belichick‘s defense held Tampa Bay to its lowest point total since Week 9 last year, while Jones played efficiently with 275 passing yards and two touchdowns on 31-of-40 passing.
The Patriots’ impressive effort against the Bucs bodes well for their Week 5 matchup against a vastly inferior Texans squad. Houston’s offense has collapsed since Tyrod Taylor‘s Week 2 injury, managing just nine points over the past two games combined with Mills under center.
After getting blanked by the Bills in Week 4, things won’t be any easier in Week 5 against a Patriots defense that ranks among the best in the league. New England is allowing only 17.5 points per game — sixth-fewest in the NFL — and just held the greatest quarterback of all time without a touchdown.
Accordingly, look for the Patriots to force multiple turnovers from Mills, who’s already thrown five picks and fumbled twice in his first three games. Jones won’t light up Houston’s defense the way Josh Allen did, but he’ll take care of the ball and rely on New England’s ground game to control the clock.
With the Patriots expected to win the turnover battle and time of possession, they should bounce back against a Houston team that’s scored the fifth-fewest points and allowed the fifth-most points this season.
Prediction: New England Patriots 27, Houston Texans 10
Patriots vs Texans Best Bets
Best Bet: Patriots -9 (-110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 unit
New England’s offense has struggled ever since Brady left, but they should be able to put points on the board against Houston’s porous defense. Jones can make efficient plays that move the offense methodically down the field, while the Patriots’ run game should find success against the Texans’ 30th-ranked run defense in terms of DVOA.
New England’s defense will give Mills fits and keep Houston’s offense at bay. The last time the Patriots faced a rookie quarterback in Week 2, they picked off Zach Wilson four times and won 25-6. I expect a similar performance in Week 5, which is why I’m picking New England to win by double digits based on our NFL gameday odds.
Best Bet: Patriots -3.5 & Under 45.5 Points (+110) at BetMGM
Wager: 1 Unit
Based on the struggles of both offenses thus far, there shouldn’t be a ton of points in this one. The average Patriots game has produced just 35.3 total points this year, while the last two Texans games have both yielded fewer than 41 points.
New England should win this game fairly easily, so I’m confident in picking them to win by at least four points. I also like pairing it with the alternate Over/Under of 45.5, which gives us a bit more breathing room than the 39.5 set by BetMGM and makes this our NFL bet of the day.
Lastly, if you’re someone that does NFL player prop bets every week, keep an eye on interceptions thrown for Mills as you might be able to get a decent number on his prop once they are released.
Thanks for reading our Patriots vs Texans Week 5 Predictions! For more NFL betting tips, check out our NFL Week 5 Best Bets.