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NFL underdogs had their way in Week 1 of the NFL season with nine straight-up victories. If you survived Week 1, there’s a good chance a portion of your pool is already gone.
Thankfully, if you’re tailing my selections, you’re still alive after the Carolina Panthers defeated the New York Jets, 19-14.
Each week we’ll look at “The Prediction Tracker" with projections from the top set of computer ratings in the sports betting industry. With those projections, all the data is combined into one to give us the most concrete projections for each NFL game of the season. Check out the projections grid below.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Grid for Week 2
|Road Team||Home Team||Opening Line||Current Line||Prob HmTm W||Prob RdTmW||Prob HmTmCv||Prob RdTmCv|
|San Francisco||LA Rams||+6.5||+4||0.6136||0.3864||0.4994||0.5006|
|LA Chargers||Las Vegas||-2.5||-3||0.4776||0.5224||0.5455||0.4545|
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck, uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news. Lines are current as of Tuesday, September 14.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
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Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our best Week 1 knockout selections.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 2
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons
Last week, I told pool pickers to refrain from taking the Buccaneers in Week 1. I would’ve liked to wait on them a little bit longer, but they’re the clear favorite this week with the most potential.
Tampa Bay knocked off the Dallas Cowboys last week with a 31-29 victory. The defense didn’t perform all that well, but they scored enough points to secure the win.
On the other hand, the Falcons looked terrible, losing to the Eagles 32-6 as 3-point favorites. The Falcons opened as 10.5-point underdogs and are now 13-point underdogs against the former champions.
The Prediction Tracker gives the Buccaneers a 79.78% chance of winning outright, which is the highest probability on the slate. This is the safest pick for Week 2 going up against the Falcons.
The Buccaneers are currently -12.5 at Caesars at (-110) odds.
Minnesota Vikings vs Arizona Cardinals
If you didn’t listen to me Week 1 and used the Buccaneers, the Cardinals look like the best alternative. The Vikings lost an overtime game to the Cincinnati Bengals and found themselves trailing by double digits at one point in that game.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals took it to the Titans on Sunday, winning 38-13 on the road. If there was any major surprise of Week 1, it was Arizona absolutely dominating the Titans on the road. The Cardinals certainly look like the real deal behind an offense that has plenty of weapons to build around Kyler Murray. The defense also just showed off a ridiculous pass rush, with Chandler Jones earning five sacks in the first game of the season.
The prediction tracker is expecting the Cardinals to clean up and has them projected to win 72.09% of the time. As 4.5-point favorites, this is a bit more risky, but it all makes sense when you look at the numbers. With the Cardinals at home, I can’t hate on this.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
Las Angeles Chargers vs Dallas Cowboys
The Chargers barely defeated the Washington Football Team in Week 1, winning 20-16. It wasn’t that impressive, but they got the job done with Justin Herbert throwing for 337 yards. He connected with Keenan Allen nine times for 100 yards, and Austin Ekeler is back in action for the Chargers after gaining 57 yards on the ground.
I know they’re a 3-point favorite at this time, but the Prediction Tracker has the Chargers winning over 60% of the time against the Cowboys. In a survivor pool, the goal is to find teams with projections of 60% or higher to win their matchup. The Chargers fit the the criteria.
It is tricky going up against the Cowboys, though. They’ve got a brutal secondary, but their offense can stick around in games. The Chargers found so many ways to lose games last season in the final few minutes, but with a new head coach, maybe things change.
The Chargers are (-160) on the moneyline at Caesars and are projected to win their matchup by more than three points. If you’re looking for a betting angle, the Chargers could be that team to bet.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
I know you want to take the Packers to beat the Lions! It’s the obvious choice. However, after last week’s result, it’s hard to back the Packers at this time. The Packers showed no heart at the end of their loss to the Saints while the Lions did everything in their power to come back against the 49ers.
At this point, I need to see the Packers win a couple games and get their mojo back before I bet them. The Packers play the Lions twice this season and if you’re winning your pool through January and still have the Packers, that’s a great clinching pick to finish the whole pool off.
We might not have to wait that long to play the Packers. All I’m saying is after last week, there’s no chance I’d bet against the Lions and bet for the Packers. I saw fight out of the Lions and nothing out of the Packers. Be careful and save Green Bay.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
Houston Texans @ Cleveland Browns
Let me just say this. The Texans aren’t nearly as bad as some might think. The Prediction Tracker also agrees with me here.
The Browns are 12.5-point favorites at Caesars and still only have a 69.74% chance of winning this game against the Texans via the Prediction Tracker. In comparison, the Cardinals are 4.5-point favorites and the Prediction Tracker has them winning 72.09% of the time.
The Texans are coming off a 37-21 win against the Jaguars as 3-point underdogs. Last week, The Prediction Tracker called the upset, spitting out the Texans to win over 60% of the time against the Jaguars. Now, the Prediction Tracker has the Browns to win by an average of just 7.43 points against the Texans this week.
I’m not saying an upset is going to happen, but there are better weeks to bet the Browns than against the Texans. Don’t bet against teams that had big wins in Week 1 and don’t bet on teams that looked terrible in Week 1. Bet the teams that did well last week, as those teams have a higher chance of performing this week to help you stay alive and survive.