Trey Lance NFL Draft 2021 Prospect Profile: Risk-Reward QB Like Comp Carson Wentz
This is The Game Day’s Trey Lance NFL Draft Prospect Profile. After you read our Trey Lance Scouting Report, Marcus Mosher’s first 2021 NFL Mock Draft for Round 1 and see where the North Dakota State alum is predicted to be selected.
Trey Lance NFL Draft Prospect Profile
Trey Lance: Bio & Measurables
- School: North Dakota State
- Height: 6-foot-4
- Weight: 226 lbs.
- Class in Final Season: Junior
Trey Lance: Scouting Report
- Strong athleticism with good footwork to help evade the pass rush
- Dual-threat playmaker with the ability to throw the ball downfield with touch and scramble for chunk yardage
- Plays with poise under pressure
- Does a great job protecting the football while still taking necessary risks
- Faced weaker competition in the Missouri Valley Football Conference (MVFC)
- Small sample of production, with only one season as the starting quarterback
- Can be a bit inconsistent with his accuracy
- Struggled in his only start of the 2020 season against Central Arkansas
Trey Lance NFL Outlook
Lance only has one year of starting experience, but he tore up the league in that small 2019 sample with an absurd 28 touchdowns and zero interceptions. His ability to protect the football and make big plays as a dual-threat quarterback makes him an enticing prospect.
Lance was limited to only one start in this shortened season, a game where he struggled against Central Arkansas. He completed 15-of-30 passes (50%) for 149 yards (4.97 Y/A) with two touchdowns and one interception, but he made up for his passing struggles with 143 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
It’s tough to put too much stock in a one-off game — his only action of the season — but it’s worth noting that he did not perform well in his most recent performance.
Lance will be in his age-21 season as a rookie, so it could be beneficial for him to spend at least half of the season learning on the sidelines behind a veteran quarterback.
This is a prospect who needs some development and might not be ready to start in Week 1. Lance’s dual-threat playmaking ability gives him as much upside as any quarterback in this draft.
In today’s NFL, it’s important to have a mobile quarterback, so Lance has a bright future in this league, as long as he’s not thrust into action in a difficult situation with limited weapons or a porous offensive line.
While there’s risk here given the small sample of strong production, the traits are there for Lance to develop into a franchise quarterback.
Trey Lance NFL Comparison
Carson Wentz: Lance shares similar traits with the other top quarterback prospect out of North Dakota State. Like Lance, Wentz had concerns as a prospect who faced weaker competition coming out of a small school. Both quarterbacks had only one full season as the starter.
At 6-foot-6, 235 pounds, Wentz has similar measurables with Lance. Wentz has the stronger arm, but Lance has better mobility. Both quarterbacks excelled with touch passes downfield but were sometimes inconsistent with their accuracy.
Trey Lance NFL Draft: Team Fits
The Falcons have missed the playoffs for three consecutive seasons. They now have a new head coach in Arthur Smith who brings over a new scheme.
The Falcons have the fourth overall pick, so it’s the ideal time to select 35-year old Matt Ryan‘s successor.
Smith has experience working with a mobile quarterback in Ryan Tannehill, so his scheme could be perfect for Lance. The Falcons could have Lance learn behind Ryan for the first season before handing over the reins. Lance would have the opportunity to play with stud wide receivers like Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.
The Lions have missed the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. Dan Campbell is their new head coach, equipped with the seventh overall pick. The team has moved on from quarterback Matthew Stafford and can now trade a first-rounder to move up and select his replacement.
Wide receiver Kenny Golladay is a free agent, but the team does have other weapons like tight end T.J. Hockenson and running back D’Andre Swift. New offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn helped guide rookie quarterback Justin Herbert to a stellar season, which bodes well for Lance if he lands here.
This is the best landing spot for Lance.
Not only would he have the opportunity to work with stud offensive coordinator Joe Brady, but he’d also be surrounded by weapons like running back Christian McCaffrey and wide receivers D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson.
If the team can also keep free-agent WR Curtis Samuel, that would be one talented offense. Lance would also be able to sit and learn from Teddy Bridgewater until he’s ready to take over as the starter.
Drafting Lance would make the Panthers a sneaky wild-card contender as soon as next season.
Trey Lance NFL Draft Prediction
Round 1, Pick 8: Carolina Panthers
There’s a legitimate chance for Lance to land in Carolina because of this stacked quarterback class.
Since Lance was only limited to one game this season, it could lead him to fall to QB4 in this draft, since his counterparts Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields and Zach Wilson each saw more action on the field. This concern is compounded by the fact that Lance really struggled in his lone game against Central Arkansas.
At the same time, Lance could be selected higher because of his athleticism and mobility, but my money’s on the Panthers, who would be ecstatic to land their quarterback of the future right at the edge of the Top 10.
Trey Lance NFL Draft Bets
BetMGM currently lists Trey Lance at (+5100) to be selected first overall. While this is obviously terrific value for a high-end quarterback prospect, it’s hard to see the Jaguars passing on Trevor Lawrence.
Even though we’ve seen surprise quarterback first overall selections in the past, like when the Browns selected Baker Mayfield in 2018, that was a draft with no clear-cut number-one. Lawrence has been considered the top QB in this class for the last two years. Add in the fact that there’s no combine this year and it’s hard to see Lance usurping the throne as the top pick.
This is the only draft prop available right now, but keep an eye out to see if there are any props that become available for Lance to be selected within the Top 5. This is a bet that would have solid value because he’s currently projected to go behind one or both of Fields and Wilson.
While I think he ends up being selected as QB4 in this class, there’s definitely a chance that he jumps ahead of Wilson and Fields because the second-best quarterback in this class is a polarizing debate and totally up for grabs.
Now that you’ve read our Trey Lance draft prospect and scouting report, stay tuned for more Trey Lance 2021 Draft bet tips — and after the 2021 NFL Draft for his impact on betting lines, odds and tips for his NFL team.
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