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We’ve made it to Week 1 of the NFL season. I’ve got good news for those reading this. You’re still alive in your NFL survivor pool! Now, the goal is to stay surviving throughout a long 18-week season.
Each week on Wednesday, I will provide my best pick to win your pool for the week. I will also provide a value pick for those who don’t tail my picks on a weekly basis.
After all, in a normal survivor pool, you’re unable to select a team more than once for the rest of the season.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool Pick Grid for Week 1
| Road Team | Home Team | Opening Line | Current Line | Prob HmTm W | Prob RdTmW | Prob HmTmCv | Prob RdTmCv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City | Denver | -3 | -10 | 0.3278 | 0.6722 | 0.5755 | 0.4245 |
| Dallas | Philadelphia | -3.5 | -7 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 0.6325 | 0.3675 |
| Pittsburgh | Baltimore | +6.5 | +4.5 | 0.6272 | 0.3728 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Cincinnati | Cleveland | +1.5 | +3 | 0.4427 | 0.5573 | 0.3989 | 0.6011 |
| Green Bay | Detroit | -11 | -2 | 0.2325 | 0.7675 | 0.3365 | 0.6635 |
| Tennessee | Houston | -10 | -10.5 | 0.251 | 0.749 | 0.5231 | 0.4769 |
| Indianapolis | Jacksonville | -8.5 | -15.5 | 0.1711 | 0.8289 | 0.5373 | 0.4627 |
| Chicago | Minnesota | +6 | +3 | 0.6375 | 0.3625 | 0.538 | 0.462 |
| Washington | N.Y. Giants | -4 | -7 | 0.468 | 0.532 | 0.6191 | 0.3809 |
| Seattle | Arizona | +5 | +6.5 | 0.6522 | 0.3478 | 0.4885 | 0.5115 |
| New Orleans | Atlanta | -3.5 | -4.5 | 0.3717 | 0.6283 | 0.4986 | 0.5014 |
| N.Y. Jets | Buffalo | +17 | +17 | 0.8895 | 0.1105 | 0.5199 | 0.4801 |
| San Francisco | LA Rams | +6.5 | +4 | 0.6136 | 0.3864 | 0.4994 | 0.5006 |
| New England | Miami | -2.5 | -6.5 | 0.3375 | 0.6625 | 0.5112 | 0.4888 |
| Carolina | Tampa Bay | +16.5 | +8 | 0.835 | 0.165 | 0.6174 | 0.3826 |
| LA Chargers | Las Vegas | -2.5 | -3 | 0.4776 | 0.5224 | 0.5455 | 0.4545 |
The above survivor pool grid, created by Todd Beck, uses the average of the top computer ratings in the sports betting industry including computer systems like Sagarin, ESPN FPI, Massey Ratings, Stat Fox and many, many more.
To read this grid properly, the opening line and current line are based on the road team.
Keep in mind that when this article is posted, current lines can change and probability for teams can also change based on breaking news. Lines are current as of Tuesday, September 7.
Sportsbook Play of the Day
Before making your Week 1 NFL Survivor pool picks, you should know that Caesars Sportsbook is one of the best around. Take advantage of Caesars’ outstanding welcome bonus which gives you a risk-free bet of up to $5,000 when you use our promo code .
Read Chris Wassel’s Caesars Sportsbook review for more insight and get your welcome bonus below, or continue reading this analysis for our best Week 1 knockout selections.
2021 NFL Survivor Pool: Best Picks to Win in Week 1
Carolina Panthers vs. New York Jets
The Carolina Panthers have revamped their offense and look like a team that can score plenty of points any given Sunday. Sam Darnold will face his former team at quarterback in Carolina and that should boost his play.
He was never given talent in New York but has a load of it in Carolina between Christian McCaffrey, his former teammate and now current teammate, Robby Anderson, D.J. Moore and Terrace Marshall.
Right now, the Jets don’t even know who will start at cornerback and the game is this weekend. Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson might have what it takes to win games as a Jet.
But he can’t be a Jet unless he struggles in his first couple of games. It’s just what New York Jets players do.
Carolina ATS can be had at -4 (-110) at Caesars.
Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Falcons are always making things difficult. How many times have we seen the Falcons cough up big leads? You don’t want to get caught playing the Falcons in a survivor pool late in the season when they’re pulling that kind of stuff. Get the Falcons win out of the way early and worry about teams that don’t make you sweat 24-point leads later.
The Eagles will play under new head coach Nick Sirianni and still have Jalen Hurts under center. There’s really nothing special about his quarterback play, and the Eagles basically went out and brought in Gardner Minshew as insurance for that very reason.
Even the Eagles know Hurts isn’t a reliable quarterback.
The Philadelphia Eagles should be playing from behind at the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1. Jalen Hurts’ potentially erratic play makes the Falcons a solid NFL survivor pick. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Sleeper Team To Win
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Texans seem like they’re depleted. They’ll be without Deshaun Watson at quarterback and no longer have J.J. Watt along the defensive line. However, all of the computer models can agree on one thing: The one-win Jaguars aren’t that much better than last season.
Trevor Lawrence will help this team grow under Urban Meyer, but the Jags still won just one game last season. Quarterback play is huge but the rest of the team needs to contribute as well.
Tyrod Taylor has been named quarterback for the Texans, a year after losing his job to Justin Herbert in Los Angeles due to an injury and punctured lung.
Just knowing Taylor beat out Herbert to start the season tells me enough. Taylor, when given the opportunity can shine. I agree with these computer models. The Texans should start the season 1-0.
Currently, you can grab the Texans (+130) on the moneyline via Caesars. There’s ample value there with Houston at home.
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Future Team Value Pick to Save
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Dallas Cowboys
- UPDATE 9/10: Tampa Bay made their Survivor backers sweat this one out, for sure! They only defeated the Cowboys 31-29 in Week 1. You got lucky even if you didn’t wait, but you’ll have plenty more chances with less risk eventually.
From the chart above, you will see that the Buccaneers, according to all of the respected models, have come to an agreement on the Buccaneers having the highest probability of winning outright this week.
However, I’d advise you to stay away from taking the former Super Bowl champions on Week 1. You want to save them for a later date.
There’s a good chance this team ends up winning around 12 games this season. That’s literally what their win total is listed as.
You can get Over 12 wins (-110) for the Bucs. They’re going to be massive favorites plenty of times this season.
Hold out on the Bucs!
2021 NFL Survivor Pools: Chalk Pick That Could Lose
Baltimore Ravens @ Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders will welcome the Baltimore Ravens to their place for a Monday Night Football showdown. How many times do we watch absurd outcomes on Sunday or Monday Night Football?
Each year the Raiders find a way to win games they weren’t supposed to and this might be one of those games. The Raiders defeated the Saints on Monday Night during Week 2 last season, 34-24 and knocked off the Kansas City Chiefs, 40-32 in Week 5.
Wait until the Ravens are home. Don’t go picking them on the road against the Raiders on Week 1.
Currently, the Raiders are (+180) on the moneyline via Caesars. The computer models don’t necessarily agree, but the Raiders are a sneaky play on the moneyline away from the survivor pools.
