Astros Re-Sign Michael Brantley: MLB Betting & Fantasy Tips
Astros Re-Sign Michael Brantley: Michael Brantley is staying put with a two-year, $32 million extension. This is a minor downgrade for his fantasy value because the Houston Astros lineup got weaker.
Brantley’s upside in run production takes a bit of a hit with the loss of George Springer, but the Astros have rising talents like Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez to help cope with the loss.
In this article, we’ll take a look at Michael Brantley’s fantasy baseball value and determine if he’s worth drafting. We’ll also provide betting tips with a look at potential futures bets.
Michael Brantley 2020 Review
Brantley was solid last season, slashing .300/.364/.476 with 24 runs, 5 home runs, 22 RBI, and 2 stolen bases in 187 plate appearances, according to Baseball Reference.
There were some minor signs of decline. His strikeout rate increased by 4.6% and he put up a career-low 92.9% Z-Contact%. However, this could merely be due to the small sample, as his .362 wOBA aligned with career norms.
Entering his age-34 season, Brantley remains an asset for batting average.
Michael Brantley 2021 Outlook
Last season, Brantley rotated between the 3-hole (112 PA) and cleanup spot (66 PA). It’s likely that he’ll retain one of these spots in the order, giving him a good chance at 80+ runs and RBI.
Brantley has now hit .300 or better in three consecutive seasons, with the prior year finishing at .299. This is an elite contact hitter with limited power – it’s likely that 22 home runs (2019) is his ceiling. He likely no longer has upside for 10+ steals.
Verdict: Downgraded value. Brantley’s fantasy value would have increased significantly if he signed with the Blue Jays. We can slightly downgrade his value with his return to the Astros.
Brantley is currently being selected at 158 ADP in National Fantasy Baseball Championship leagues. His narrow range of outcomes makes him a solid value at this price point. If you need batting average, Brantley can act as a stabilizer for your squad.
Betting Tips for Michael Brantley, Astros
The Astros went 29-31 in the shortened 2020 season, finishing 2nd in the AL West and returning to the playoffs due to the expanded format.
They had a Pythagorean Win-Loss Record of 30-30, slightly better than their actual record. They also averaged 4.7 runs per game (14th) and allowed 4.6 runs per game (14th).
Retaining Brantley helps stabilize a lineup that remains strong but needs young players like Tucker and Alvarez to continue to improve. They look like a fringe Wild Card contender in 2021.
World Series Futures Bet?
The Astros are +2200 to win the World Series at BetMGM, placing them 10th in MLB. With their talent, another World Series is attainable, so this is a value play, though losing so many valuable lineup pieces diminishes their upside.
Astros Win Total Bet?
While season win totals are not available, I would project it at around 85 wins. I’d avoid playing the Over on their season total because this team has a wide range of outcomes with their current pitching concerns.
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