Bills-Chiefs Bet Tips & Picks: AFC Championship Game
The Buffalo Bills visit the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET. Here’s our complete guide to Bills-Chiefs Bet Tips. Odds and lines for Bills-Chiefs picks and AFC Championship bets are from PointsBet, current as of Monday at 8 p.m. ET.
Bills-Chiefs Bet Tips & Picks for AFC Championship
Picks in this article
Bills-Chiefs Bet Tips
Odds & Betting Lines for Bills-Chiefs Picks
- Against The Spread: Chiefs -3 (+100) / Bills +3 (-121)
- Moneyline: Chiefs (-145) / Bills (+125)
- Total: 53 — Over 53 (-121) / Under 53 (+100)
- Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 28, Bills 25
Kansas City Chiefs host Buffalo Bills with shot at Super Bowl on the line.
Bills-Chiefs: Key Injuries
The Bills’ injury report is mostly clean, except for Zack Moss, who is on IR with an ankle injury. This opens up a potential lead-back role for Devin Singletary.
However, the Bills remain a pass-first offense. Last week, with Moss out, Singletary got just 7 carries, which he turned into 25 rush yards. Buffalo will likely need to play a bit more of a balanced offense to pull off the upset in the AFC title game.
The status of Patrick Mahomes is clearly something that could swing this game, both on the betting side, and on the field.
Mahomes is in concussion protocol, and we don’t know if or when he will be cleared. When players are in protocol, we’ve seen them miss the next game just under 70% of the time, so the odds are not in Mahomes’ favor.
If he is forced to sit, then the Chiefs will be forced to turn to Chad Henne, who came in last week and went 6-for-8 for 66 yards and 1 interception. Henne added a 13-yard run that essentially sealed the win for the Chiefs. Whether it’s Mahomes or Henne under center will likely be the difference in this one.
Bills-Chiefs: Players to Watch
BUF QB Josh Allen has thrown the ball at least 35 times in both of the Bills’ playoff games this season, and is yet to turn the ball over. The QB has thrown for 3 passing TDs and also ran for one in the Wild-Card Round. If Allen can continue to play turnover-free football, we could see the Bills advance to their first Super Bowl since 1993.
His top target, Stefon Diggs, just keeps on producing. Diggs accounted for 106 of the Bills’ 220 total yards in the team’s 17-3 win over the Baltimore Ravens last week in the Divisional Round. Expect the wideout to be heavily involved again Sunday, as he currently has the most receiving yards in the postseason (234) after leading the league in receiving yards (1,535) during the regular season as well.
KC TE Travis Kelce caught 8 passes for 109 yards and a TD against the Browns last week. Two of those catches and 29 of those yards came on passes from Henne. No matter who starts at QB for the Chiefs, Kelce will remain a focal point of the team’s offense. The Pro Bowler led the league in receiving yards by a tight end (1,416) by a large margin, was tied for the lead in receiving TDs (11), and was second in receptions (105). He also caught two touchdown passes in the Chiefs’ 26-17 win over the Bills in Week 6. Expect Kelce and Tyreek Hill to get the bulk of the targets for the Chiefs, whether it’s Henne or Mahomes throwing the passes.
Bills-Chiefs: Weather Report
The weather report at Arrowhead Stadium calls for mostly cloudy skies and a bit of sleet in the evening. There is expected to be a low temperature of 24 degrees Fahrenheit, a 56% chance of precipitation and wind gusts of up to 28 mph at kickoff Sunday.
Bills-Chiefs Picks & Bet Tips
BEST BET: Under 53 (+100)
This is only my best bet because we don’t know who is starting at QB for the Chiefs.
After these two teams combined for just 39 points last week, weather could be a factor come Sunday. With an initial forecast of freezing temperatures, wind gusts of close to 30 mph, and a potential sleet storm, expect these teams to lean on the run throughout the AFC Championship game.
More dependence on the ground game typically means fewer possessions and points. Also of note, when the Chiefs visited the Bills in Week 6, they put up a grand total of 43 points.
That being said, my final score prediction with Mahomes is Chiefs 27, Bills 17.
And with Henne starting, I would go with Chiefs 16, Bills 13.
They both land Under, making this my top play in this contest.
CONSIDER: Chiefs -3 (+100) / Bills +3 (-121)
This leads to my two-way consider play. If Mahomes plays, I’ll take the Chiefs -3; if he sits, then I’m on the Bills +3. The best player in the game is absolutely worth the touchdown difference, so I’ll wait and see what his status is before placing a bet on the side.
PASS: Chiefs (-145)
The Bills have a legit shot at winning this game outright, especially since we don’t know that status of Mahomes. I simply can’t take the Chiefs moneyline, as the Bills moneyline could ultimately be the right play here.
Pauly Parlays is 44-32-4 on his NFL Best Bets this season.
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