MLB Home Run Derby Predictions 2021 – HR Derby Betting Picks + Prop Bets

Last Updated: Jul 18, 2022

The 2021 MLB All-Star Game will take place Tuesday, June 13, at 7:30 p.m. ET, 5:30 p.m. MT. Before that, however, is the 2021 MLB Home Run Derby, which takes place Monday, June 12. Start time is 8 p.m. ET at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado.

Coors Field is known for being the most hitter-friendly environment in baseball due to the high altitude that allows the ball to carry further than any other ballpark.

2021 MLB Home Run Derby Setup

2021 Home Run Derby Rules

The Home Run Derby will be a three-round, single-elimination bracket tournament in which the seeding is based on the total number of home runs by each hitter.

The batters have 3 minutes in which to hit as many home runs as they can. The hitters are allowed to call a timeout which 45 seconds in each round. Players can also earn “bonus time” by hitting multiple home runs over 475 feet.

2021 Home Run Derby: Competitors + Bracket

  • #1 Shohei Ohtani (33 HR) vs. #8 Juan Soto (11 HR)
  • #2 Joey Gallo (23 HR) vs #7 Trevor Story (11 HR)
  • #3 Matt Olson (21 HR) vs. #6 Trey Mancini (15 HR)
  • #4 Salvador Perez (20 HR) vs.#5 Pete Alonso (16 HR)

MLB Home Run Derby 2021 Odds

  • Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels: (+325) at BetMGM / (+350) at BetRivers
  • Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers: (+450) BetMGM / (+450) BetRivers
  • Pete Alonso, New York Mets: (+500) BetMGM / (+525) BetRivers
  • Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics: (+650) BetMGM / (+580) BetRivers
  • Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies: (+700) BetMGM / (+800) BetRivers
  • Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals: (+800) BetMGM / (+700) BetRivers
  • Juan Soto, Washington Nationals: (+900) BetMGM / (+750) BetRibers
  • Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles: (+1100) BetMGM / (+1000) BetRivers

2021 MLB Home Run Derby odds provided by BetMGM and BetRivers, current as of Saturday, July 10, at 8 p.m. ET.

2021 MLB Home Run Derby: Competitor Breakdown

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels

  • 42.9% FB Rate
  • 39.3% HR/FB Rate
  • Avg. HR Distance – 417 ft
  • Max HR Distance – 470 ft

Ohtani is having a historic season and probably on his way to the 2021 American League MVP award. It is always tough to take the chalk in this contest, so I’m fading him. A bigger reason for that: He also has a tougher draw than Gallo. Salvador Perez or Pete Alonso could pull the upset in the second round. Angel Stadium is the most homer-friendly environment for left-handed batters vs. right-handed pitchers, which has also helped boost his totals.

Joey Gallo rounds the bases after a July 2021 home run

Texas Rangers 1B/OF Joey Gallo is one of the betting favorites for the 2021 MLB Home Run Derby. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers

  • 47.2% FB Rate
  • 30.3% HR/FB Rate
  • Avg. HR Distance – 416 ft
  • Max HR Distance – 462 ft

As I researched all the hitters, Gallo stood out the most to me. He has a more favorable draw than Ohtani and hits more flyballs.

Gallo is actually the favorite to hit the longest home run on BetRivers at +350. (I also think he will be able to collect at least one bonus of hitting over 475 feet.)

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Pete Alonso, New York Mets

  • 45.8% FB Rate
  • 17.4% HR/FB Rate
  • Avg. HR Distance – 410 ft
  • Max HR Distance – 443 ft

Alonso comes in as the “defending” champion from 2019, as there was no 2020 Home Run Derby due to COVID-19. Alonso has been quite vocal about how serious he takes the HRD and that will play a factor in deciding who ends up being my pick in the contest.

He gets a tough draw with Salvador Perez and a potential Joey Gallo waiting in the second round.

Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics

  • 44.8% FB Rate
  • 18.8% HR/FB Rate
  • Avg. HR Distance – 406 ft
  • Max HR Distance – 445 ft

I like Olson to get out of the first round against Trey Mancini. Olson plays in a tough hitters park and is left-handed, which gets a boost here. But the potential second-round matchup against Joey Gallo is where I expect things to end.

Listen to our Daily Dingers Podcast for more 2021 Home Run Derby Bet Picks:

Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies

  • 42.6% FB Rate
  • 12.0% HR/FB Rate
  • Avg. HR Distance – 419 ft
  • Max HR Distance – 466 ft

The Rockies shortstop is most likely only in the Derby because of the home-field nod. He gets the toughest first-round matchup against Joey Gallo.

Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals

  • 36.1% FB Rate
  • 22.2% HR/FB Rate
  • Avg. HR Distance – 399 ft
  • Max HR Distance – 460 ft

You have read my love for Joey Gallo, and if there is one guy I would pick over him, it would be Salvador Perez. Perez is the 4 seed but is the sixth seed in terms of betting odds, so the value is what triggers this play.

His typical home ballpark, Kauffman Stadium, heavily suppresses home runs for right-handed batters, so he’ll enjoy a huge positive swing in park factors. However, he does not have an easy draw with Alonso in the first round and potentially Ohtani in the second.

Salvador Perez celebrates a June 30 home run

Don’t sleep on Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez in the 2021 Home Run Derby. He’ll love to hit in Coors Field — a nice hitter-friendly change of pace from his Kauffman Stadium home park. (Image: USA TODAY Sports)

Juan Soto, Washington Nationals

  • 25.6% FB Rate
  • 19.6% HR/FB Rate
  • Avg. HR Distance – 402 ft
  • Max HR Distance – 437 ft

Much like my theory on why Trevor Story is in the 2021 Home Run Derby, I believe Soto is in because Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Ronald Acuna Jr., and Fernando Tatis Jr. are NOT in the HRD. Soto has struggled with injuries this year and has just started to turn it around, but the first-round matchup against Ohtani will be too much to overcome.

Trey Mancini, Baltimore Orioles

  • 33.6% FB Rate
  • 18.8% HR/FB Rate
  • Avg. HR Distance – 407 ft
  • Max HR Distance – 451 ft

The feel-good story of 2021 is Trey Mancini, who has returned after a bout with cancer, and it is incredible to see him back on the baseball field. Unfortunately, the narrative of why he is in the contest vs. the productivity is a different story. He gets a tough matchup against Matt Olson.

How Will Coors Field Affect 2021 MLB Home Run Derby?

Coors Field Dimensions

  • Left Field: 347 feet (106 m)
  • Left-Center: 390 feet (119 m)
  • Center Field: 415 feet (126 m)
  • Right-Center: 375 feet (114 m)
  • Right Field: 350 feet (107 m)
  • Backstop: 56 feet (17 m)

Coors Field Park Factors (2019-2021 combined)

There is a slight edge toward left-handed hitters in Coors Field. The right-center field dimensions are 375 feet vs. 390 feet in left-center.

MLB Home Run Derby 2021 Betting Picks / Predictions

If you look at flyball percentage, this is a two-horse race with Ohtani and Gallo, who should both crush balls to right field at Coors. It’s microscopically close between the two of them, so I am hitching my wagon to Gallo, who I feel has the easier path to get to the finals and win the 2021 Home Run Derby.

It also makes sense to fade the chalk in these typically volatile contests.

So with that being said, I am putting my bets on Joey Gallo to be the 2021 MLB All-Star Game Home Run Derby champion.

Joey Gallo to win HR Derby (+450) at BetMGM // 0.75 units

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Joey Gallo to beat Salvador Perez (+2200) at BetMGM // 0.5 units

  • .

Joey Gallo to beat Pete Alonso (+1605) In HR Derby Finals at BetRivers // 0.5 units

If you believe in the Ohtani fade and riding Gallo, then you can get tremendous odds on Gallo over Perez and Gallo over Alonso in the finals.

Salvador Perez to beat Joey Gallo (+2500) at BetMGM // 0.25 units

  • .

This is a hedge/value play because I already have Gallo outright, and Gallo to beat Perez. At +2500 it makes sense.

Longest Home Run in the 1st Round Over 500.5 Feet? YES (+100) at BetMGM // 1 unit

  • .

I think two or all of Gallo, Ohtani, and Alonso accomplish this.

Batting Handedness of Winner: Left-Handed (-155) at BetRivers // 1 unit

  • .

Not a great return on this bet, but it makes complete sense given Othani and Gallo are left-handed batters.

MLB All-Star Weekend 2021 Schedule

  • All-Star Futures Game: Sunday, July 9, at ET, ESPN
  • All-Star Home Run Derby: Monday, July 10, at ET, ESPN
  • 2021 MLB All-Star Game: Tuesday, July 11, at ET, ESPN


Michael Rathburn

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