May 19 MLB Bets: Corbin Burnes’ Brewers In ‘First 5 Innings’ Prop
Here’s your May 19 MLB Bet Picks for 5/19/21 MLB Bets. All odds for May 19 MLB Picks were obtained from BetMGM, who offers new players a Risk-Free Bet of up to $600. Click here to sign up, claim this welcome promotion, and place 2021 MLB bets.
Did anyone watch yesterday’s Rockies/Padres game? I was so upset about my team total loss for the Rockies. As a capper, I shrug the wins. They’re supposed to happen. But the losses? I’ll revisit them immediately, trying to figure out what was wrong.
Josh Fuentes had a double with two runners on base that hit the wall on the fly. If it went over, the Rockies would’ve scored three runs by the second inning. Instead, they scored one run and no more after through 10 innings to lose that bet. That play turned me from looking like a genius to a rookie capper. It is what it is I guess.
As always, you can find my bets, including any late additions to the card, on my Twitter page @Jason_Radowitz. Now, here are tips for my 5/19/21 MLB Bets.
- Overall: 9-3
- Team Totals: 4-2
- First 5 IP Bets: 3-0
- Moneylines: 2-1
May 19 MLB Bet Tips
Milwaukee Brewers @ Kansas City Royals (8:10 p.m. ET)
- Brewers @ Royals 5/19 Game Preview
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Corbin Burnes (MIL) vs. RHP Brad Keller (MIL)
Brewers to win the first 5 innings (-120)
Wager: 1.20 units (win would pay out 2.2 units)
Cubs To Defeat Nationals (WAS @ CHC, 5/18)
Bet $20, Payout $39
Corbin Burnes returned from the injured list last week after fighting off COVID. Although he was asymptomatic, he had to step away from the diamond until cleared.
He went five innings against the Cardinals, allowing five hits, one run and a walk. He struck out nine in those five innings using 78 pitches and looked like his elite early-season self.
Before he was forced off the field, he had thrown 49 strikeouts and no walks, allowing just five earned runs in 29 1/3 innings. He was dominant. When he came back, he looked just as dominant and will take on a Royals offense that hasn’t been all that this season.
Only Carlos Santana, Andrew Benintendi and Salvador Perez have respectable numbers against righties in the Royals lineup to begin with.
Burnes is allowing a low weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .212 to lefties and .166 to righties, while also keeping extra-base hits and power low from both sides of the plate. Currently, he’s averaging 55.4 percent of strikeouts against righties this season. Literally more than half of righties that face Burnes are striking out. The Royals will likely have five righties in the lineup.
On the other hand, the Brewers offense has struggled. The squad just put up a fat zero for Brandon Woodruff, another top-tier pitcher for the Brewers. It’ll be hard to put up two eggs against the Royals pitching, however.
Brad Keller is expected to pitch for the Royals in this one and to be polite, he’s been bad. Keller is allowing a .373 wOBA of .373 to lefties and a .411 to righties this season. He’s striking out just 17.8 percent of batters and walking nearly 10 percent of batters.
The Brewers expect to have Christian Yelich back in the lineup. If that’s the case, it’ll be a huge addition to this lineup that has really struggled as of late. This lineup should feature plenty of lefties against the right-handed Keller including power bats like Yelich, Travis Shaw, and Dan Vogelbach. The top of the order has pop while the bottom of the order stays patient against righties.
I’ll ride Burnes in the first five as one of my 5/19/21 MLB bets, and I believe the Brewers score some runs against Keller, who simply has allowed two or more runs in all but one start this season. The other one, he allowed one run. One run could be enough with Burnes on the mound.
Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays (7:37 p.m. ET)
- Red Sox @ Blue Jays 5/19 Game Preview
- Probable Pitchers: RHP Garrett Richards (BOS) vs. RHP Ross Stripling (TOR)
Red Sox to win the first 5 innings moneyline (-110)
Wager: 1.10 units (win would pay 1 unit)
Rockies To Score 3 Or More Runs (COL @ SD, 5/18)
Bet $20, Payout $38
The Red Sox will send out Garrett Richards to face a right-handed-heavy Blue Jays lineup.
Richards has been much better against righties than he has lefties this season, which is one reason why Richards should have a solid start against the Blue Jays.
Richards has now allowed one earned run or less in three of his last four starts. However, he did allow four runs in 4.2 innings to Toronto earlier this season, at home, striking out just two batters while walking six.
Since that start, Richards has struck out 26 batters and walked just five batters in 25 innings. He’s turned the corner since that start. Richards is holding righties to low power and extra base hits while limiting the wOBA of righties to .302.
Lefties are hitting a .347 wOBA with more extra-base hits and power. However, the Blue Jays lineup consists of mostly right-handed bats, as I alluded to earlier. At most, the Blue Jays will have three lefties in the lineup. The Jays only consistent bats against righties include Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. who all have extra-base hit potential and high on-base averages. Three batters out of nine won’t scare many bettors.
On the flip side, Ross Stripling will take the hill for the Blue Jays after allowing two runs on four hits in five innings against the Braves. Stripling struck out nine and walked one batter in that game. The Braves have been striking out a lot recently and that was just another game where the Braves’ offense struggled.
The Red Sox shouldn’t have that problem. Stripling is allowing a .445 wOBA to righties and plenty of extra base hits and power. Oddly enough, as a right-handed pitcher, he’s been able to limit damage against lefties.
Anyway, the Red Sox will have more righties than lefties in the lineup, including JD Martinez, who has a wOBA of .451 against righties this season. Martinez mashes righties and although he’s gone 0-for-4 against Stripling, Martinez is a live home run option tonight.
Other bats that stand out against right-handed pitching including Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers who are all stacked up in a bunch, together, in the middle of the lineup.
Stripling has allowed two or more runs in every start this season. He also hasn’t pitched past five innings in five starts. If he does just that (at least two earned runs through five innings) against the Red Sox and Richards, that should be enough to get the first five win.
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